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Cover Stories Series 2013> All Aboard> Archive
UPDATED: February 6, 2012 NO. 6 FEBRUARY 9, 2012
Managing the Mass Migration
Transportation network struggles to cope with Spring Festival demand
By Lan Xinzhen
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Along with the completion of a number of high-speed railway lines, such as the Beijing-Shanghai Express Railway, China now has over 3,000 km of high-speed rail track, more than any other country in the world.

However, the increase in transport capacity, while sufficient to meet day-to-day demand, is insufficient to deal with the sharp spike in passenger numbers over the Spring Festival. Since the Spring Festival transportation program started in 1989, when migrant workers began to hunt for jobs in eastern coastal cities, the number of passengers during the festival has surged from 800 million to more than 3 billion.

Solutions

Spring Festival transportation has proved to be a stubborn problem. Some people have suggested solving the problem by enhancing the railway's transport capacity. But the fact is China cannot construct its railways according to the demands of the Spring Festival, as that would lead to enormous waste and overcapacity on a day-to-day basis.

According to statistics from the MOR, normally Chinese railways only need to handle a daily passenger load of about 3 million. But during the Spring Festival, this number tops 5.8 million.

The second possible solution to the problem is to tackle the underlying causes behind the mass migration. Why do people travel so far from their hometowns to search for jobs?

"The major reason is the huge income gap between different regions," said Su Hainan, Vice Chairman of the China Association for Labor.

There are some severe imbalances in China's economic layout. In the eastern coastal cities, the development of secondary and tertiary industries has created numerous jobs. Job opportunities in inner China on the other hand remain quite limited, and salaries in those regions are significantly lower. As a result, a large number of workers have been attracted to more developed regions.

The income gap, both between urban and rural areas and between regions, is widening. This has contributed to an increase in the migrant population.

"The fundamental way to ease Spring Festival transport pressure is to promote balanced development between different regions through a more rational economic layout," said Su.

"If the imbalance can't be solved, passenger numbers won't be reduced and transport pressure will remain the same," said Su.

However, this sort of rebalancing can't be achieved overnight. The Chinese Government has been striving to achieve more balanced development between different regions for several years.

Some encouraging results and tendencies are being reported. Labor-intensive, low value-added enterprises have begun to move to central and western regions. But the number of such businesses remains quite small and the income gap is still large.

"The best solution to the Spring Festival transport problem is to change the current system of registered permanent residence while striving for balanced regional development," said Zhang Xiaode, an economics professor at the Chinese Academy of Governance.

"The social security discrimination behind the registered permanent residence system means that migrant workers lack a sense of belonging to the cities they work in," said Zhang.

Faced with a number of problems including education, medical care and old age pensions, few migrant workers are willing and able to move their families to the city.

Zhang said that changing the registered permanent residence system would allow migrant workers' families to join them in the cities, thus reducing the population flow during the Spring Festival.

"But this suggestion may not be approved as many officials worry about the burden an influx of migrant families would place on cities," said Zhang.

"The process of absorbing migrant workers as urban citizens can be carried out little by little," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociology professor at the Renmin University of China.

If cities can provide favorable policies for migrant workers that have worked in the city for more than five years, offering them low-rent housing funded jointly by enterprises and the government, this would reduce the Spring Festival migration, said Zhou.

Zhou's suggestion is just a temporary expedient. According to the NDRC, China's urbanization rate will reach 65 percent by 2030. This means each year 20 million migrant workers become urban residents, and by 2030, about 400 million migrant workers and their families will have become urban citizens.

Zhou also suggested adopting flexible ticket prices to control passenger flows. For instance, one month before the Spring Festival transportation, tickets can be sold at a 20-percent discount. With the approach of the festival, prices would keep rising, reaching 110 percent of the original price. This would drive migrant workers to return to their hometowns as early as possible and thus ease some of the huge transport pressure.

Email us at: lanxinzhen@bjreview.com

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