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Business
Cover Story Series> Business
UPDATED: January 29, 2012 NO. 5 FEBRUARY 2, 2012
Throttling Down
Rising domestic spending easing effect of sluggish exports on China's economy
By Hu Yue
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TO BE SAILING: Cargo ships being built in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province (WANG QIMING)

Meanwhile, Chinese consumers have opened up their wallets to fill in the blank left by falling exports. While consumption accounted for 51.6 percent of last year's GDP, the contribution of net exports was -5.8 percent, according to the NBS.

Retail sales of consumer goods stood at 18.12 trillion yuan ($2.86 trillion) in 2011, rising 17.1 percent compared with 2010.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist with the Beijing-based China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd., said the rapid expansion of the middle class and their increased spending could give the economy a boost, despite a prolonged downturn in Europe and the United States.

Per-capita disposable income of China's urban residents climbed 14.1 percent year on year in 2011 to reach 21,810 yuan ($3,445), while per-capita net income of farmers was 6,977 yuan ($1,102), up 17.9 percent year on year, according to the NBS.

"Since it takes time to complete the social safety net, the road to a consumer-oriented growth model will depend critically on real wage growth," she said.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said 24 provinces raised the minimum wage standard by an average of 22 percent last year.

In September 2011, the government raised the cut-off point for personal income tax to 3,500 yuan ($553) from 2,000 yuan ($316), which facilitated wage growth and boosted consumption.

Progress in improving social security could also help fuel consumption.

A pension program benefiting the country's 50 million unemployed urban residents that launched on July 1, 2011 has been implemented in 60 percent of the cities and townships.

Promising prospect

Although a downward trend of GDP growth is inevitable due to external uncertainties and domestic rebalancing, China's economy will continue steering a steady course of growth.

Inflation, an acute headache for China in 2011, will calm down.

"Consumer prices will taper off markedly in 2012 as the economy slows, food prices retreat and imported inflation falters," said the Bank of China in a recent report, which predicted that the CPI will rise around 3.5 percent in 2012.

Zhuang Jian, chief China economist with the Asian Development Bank, also anticipated a downward trend in the overall price level in 2012 as a result of diminishing carry-over effects and the government's prudent monetary policy direction.

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