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12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)
12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)
UPDATED: September 13, 2010 NO. 37 SEPTEMBER 16, 2010
Predictions for the Next Five Years

CLEAN AND GREEN: The No.1 reactor of Ling'ao nuclear power plant operates at full capacity (XINHUA)

Energy and resource security challenges are still serious as uncertainties abound in the global market. Global food supply has gradually stabilized, but some places might face a deteriorating supply in the near future. And threats to global security, public health and information security have been on the rise, with global climate change becoming one of the most daunting challenges for all mankind.

Third, the next five years will be an important transition period for the relations between China and the world. With rising economic power, China will become the second largest economy in the world and the most important engine for global economic growth. Judging by purchasing power parity, China contributes more than 30 percent to global GDP growth, and by the currency exchange rate, China contributes 20 percent.

China is the biggest exporting country in the world, the second largest country for import trade, and a new source for overseas investment. Attracting Chinese investment will become a major foreign investment policy for the governments of various countries, and will greatly expand the investment space for China's development.

China's science and technology power will be greatly enhanced and the country will become the second largest science and technology power in the world. China will see increases in its ranks in terms of science and technology theses and citations, domestic residents' application for international patents, hi-tech exports, and research and development expenses—all will lay a solid foundation for China to meet its goal of building an innovation-oriented country by 2020. China will play a more and more important role in the global arena and will become one of the major leaders in global governance.

Meanwhile, China will become the biggest consumer of energy and also a butt of public attack in that it is the biggest discharger of sewage, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emission. China must therefore focus on green development and make a greater contribution to the green movement sweeping the globe.

What kind of goals should China attain during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, according to your research?

China should maintain stable control over the macroeconomy. GDP growth will be maintained at an annual rate of around 7.5 percent and the urban unemployment rate be kept under 7 percent, creating 40 million jobs for urban residents and another 40 million for rural migrant workers. Price levels will also be stabilized and a balance struck between public revenues and international payments.

The industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded, and development of modern service industries will be quickened. The proportion of the service industry's added value to the domestic GDP and the proportion of jobs in the service industry to all jobs will increase by 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Overall, great strides will be made in domestic innovations.

The proportion of added value in the hi-tech industry and service industry will increase 4 percentage points in GDP. Domestic invention and patent application, as well as international scientific theses, will also increase substantially. And supports will be given to companies with independent intellectual property rights, well-known brands and international competency.

Sustainable development will be enhanced and the resource utilization ratio optimized substantially. Energy consumption per GDP unit will decrease 20 percent. Special attention will also be given to improving renewable energy and efficient coal use (China's main fossil fuel source), decreasing wasteful water consumption and major pollutants to purify air and water quality, cultivating farmland, containing environmental degradation, increasing carbon credit, combating desertification, controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and enhancing disaster relief efforts.

Basic public services will cover both urban and rural residents. This includes addressing overall poverty and greatly reducing the urban population living in poverty, as well as eliminating unsafe drinking water. A modern educational system will also be developed and perfected. Everyone will be entitled to basic medical health care in the new five-year plan period, and the social security net will be extended to cover more people. A new type of rural basic old-age insurance will cover more than 50 percent of all rural residents.

In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will enter a period of fast human development. Average urban disposable income and per-capita net income of rural residents will increase at an annual rate of 7 percent. The contribution of consumption to GDP growth will be enhanced, and the proportion of citizens' income to GNP will increase as consumption rises. Average life expectancy will reach 74, with human development index staying above 0.84.

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