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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: January 20, 2009 NO. 4 JAN. 22, 2009
MARKET WATCH NO. 4, 2009
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"This round of price cuts is aimed at revamping the country's fuel-pricing system to take it closer to global levels," said Niu Li, senior economist with the State Information Center, in an interview with China Daily. "The government may do it (cut) more often" to achieve that goal.

Fuel Surcharges Suspended

Due to a fall in kerosene prices, fuel surcharges on domestic flights were also suspended as of January 15, according to a joint announcement by the NDRC and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).

Future fuel surcharges would be determined based on kerosene price changes, they said.

The NDRC and CAAC on December 25 lowered the surcharge from 150 yuan ($22) to 40 yuan ($6) for flights that were more than 800 km, and from 80 yuan ($12) to 20 yuan ($3) for those under 800 km.

Economic Figures for December 2008

Exports-down 2.8 percent

China's exports fell for two months in a row, mirroring the global recession that is dragging down domestic exporters.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the country's exports dropped 2.8 percent in December 2008 year on year, after falling 2.2 percent in November.

Imports in December nosedived 21.3 percent year on year, after falling 17.9 percent the previous month. The December trade surplus stood at $39 billion, compared with the record high of $40 billion in November.

But the country still saw a robust 17.2-percent growth in exports and 18.5-percent increase in imports for all of 2008, thanks to spectacular growth in the first half of last year. The trade surplus grew 12.5 percent over the previous year, a sharp contraction from the 47.7-percent growth rate seen in 2007.

The outlook for the country's exports may further darken in 2009 because of the recessionary fears that have taken hold in developed countries, said the General Administration of Customs in a report.

"The gloomy trade figures bode ill for economic performance in the first quarter this year, although they in part have resulted from the recent collapse of global commodity prices," said Stephen Green, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank (China) Ltd., in a statement.

Property prices-down 0.4 percent

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities dropped 0.4 percent in December over the same period in 2007, the first nationwide year-on-year drop since the government began to release the data in 2005.

About one third of those cities saw a year-on-year price drop in December, led by Shenzhen of Guangdong Province whose prices dived 18.1 percent.

The country's real estate gloom has not shown any signs of a turnaround, although the government has staged one stimulus after another, including tax breaks and favorable mortgage loan terms for buyers, as well as easier financing for property developers.

Analysts say the stimulation measures still need some time to take effect throughout the sector, and that housing prices are still not affordable for ordinary people. As a result, more price cuts are needed to bring more potential buyers to the table, they said.

Nevertheless, sales of secondhand residences in many cities rallied in November thanks to the initial effects of the government's stimulus measures, signaling pent-up demand of the markets.

"The markets will see more corrections this year before they stabilize," said Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in a statement. "The sellers should not hold on to high prices any more, which in the end would mean that they shot themselves in the foot."

Foreign exchange reserves

At the end of 2008, official foreign exchange reserves reached $1.95 trillion, registering an increase of 27.34 percent year on year, or $417.8 billion. This was $44.1 billion less than the increase in 2007. It was the first time the country has seen a decline in the growth of its foreign exchange reserves since 1998.

A shrinking trade surplus and weakening foreign direct investment inflows are widely believed to be the causes of the growth slowdown.

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