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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: April 17, 2010 NO. 16 APRILL 22, 2010
MARKET WATCH NO. 16, 2010
 
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TO THE POINT: China's Year of the Tiger is off to a roaring start, as indicated by the first-quarter macroeconomic figures released on April 15. The consumer price index maintained steady growth in the past few months, but volatility of the index is likely to increase as more residential factors are taken into account. Global appliance retailers look to take advantage of the growing Chinese consumer market, though they are far from a serious challenge to domestic rivals. Chinese Internet conglomerate Tencent expands internationally, betting on the thriving Russian market.

By HU YUE

Numbers of the Week

23,359

The 107th China Import and Export Fair, also called the Canton Fair, opened on April 15 in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province, attracting 23,359 enterprises from home and abroad, an increase of 1,039 from the previous session in October 2009.

1.42 trillion

China's land transfer revenues increased 43.2 percent year on year in 2009 to hit 1.42 trillion yuan ($208.49 billion), said the Ministry of Finance.

Economic Figures of Q1

GDP

With the global recession seemingly fading, the Chinese economy has staged a swift comeback. China's GDP jumped 11.9 percent in the first quarter this year, even faster than the 10.7 percent in the last quarter of 2009.

Though in part inflated by a low comparison base last year, the buoyant growth rates paint a clear picture of solid economic recovery, said Guo Tianyong, Director of the Research Center of China's Banking Industry of the Central University of Finance and Economics.

CPI and PPI

The consumer price index (CPI), a gauge for inflation, grew 2.2 percent year on year in the first quarter, while the producer price index (PPI), a barometer for inflation at the wholesale level, rose 5.2 percent.

Zhu Baoliang, a senior researcher at the State Information Center, said an interest rate hike in the near future is unlikely since the country needs to ensure the recovery doesn't falter.

But Xing Ziqiang, an analyst with the China International Capital Corp. Ltd., disagreed. "The first-quarter economic performance is enough to remove worries over sustainability of the recovery, and provides justification for an early exit from monetary stimulus," he said.

Fixed-asset Investment

Investment in fixed assets proved to be a significant driving force for the economy, surging 25.6 percent in the first quarter to 3.53 trillion yuan ($517 billion).

Retail Sales

Retail sales across the country totaled 3.64 trillion yuan ($533.1 billion) in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

Residents' Income

Per-capita disposable income of urban residents grew 7.5 percent in the first quarter while net income of farmers went up 9.2 percent year on year.

House Prices

Ignoring a series of austerity measures, the real estate market continued to roar ahead. House prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities grew a robust 11.7 percent in March, striking a record high since July 2005 when the index was first released. New home prices surged 14.2 percent year on year while used ones soared 9.5 percent.

In a few big cities, thousands of homebuyers crammed into sales offices for new housing projects, seizing hundreds of available apartments in a matter of hours.

The strict mortgage rules have yet to take hold and homebuyers are starting to panic, for fear of further price surges, said Niu Fengrui, a senior researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(Data source: National Bureaus of Statistics)

Forex Reserve

China's foreign exchange reserves expanded by $47.9 billion in the first quarter to $2.447 trillion, compared with the increase of $7.7 billion in the same period of 2009, said the People's Bank of China, the central bank.

FDI

Foreign direct investment (FDI) to China went up 7.7 percent year on year to $23.44 billion in the first quarter, said the Ministry of Commerce.

A total of 5,459 foreign-funded ventures were established from January to March, up 19.9 percent from the same period of last year.

New Loans

Newly added yuan-denominated loans totaled 510.7 billion yuan ($74.8 billion) in March, a drop from February's 700.1 billion yuan ($102.5 billion), said the People's Bank of China.

Experts say policymakers have maintained careful control over the lending pace, though the overall monetary environment remains largely loose.

The March figure brought new loans in the first quarter to 2.6 trillion yuan ($380.8 billion), accounting for 35 percent of the government-set target of 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) for this year.

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