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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: April 30, 2010 NO. 18 MAY 6, 2010
MAKET WATCH NO. 18, 2010
 
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The Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for shippers' costs and profits, staged a prolonged rally in the latter half of 2009 as the world economy put the worst behind it. But surges in crude oil prices made it difficult for shippers to break even, said Mao Ang, a senior analyst with China Galaxy Securities Co. Ltd.

Looking ahead, COSCO and CSCL both expect to record profits this year with a substantial market turnaround.

But one cause for concern is soaring iron ore prices that may depress Chinese demands for imports and put a freeze on cargo traffic, said Yu Jianjun, an analyst with the Huatai Securities Co. Ltd.

A Gloomy Sky

While state-owned airlines turn loss into profits this year, the fate of their private counterparts remains up in the air.

Okay Airways, China's first private carrier, suspended all passenger services in December 2008, ushering in a turbulent shockwave for the sector. Four months later, East Star Airlines, a private Wuhan-based company, went bankrupt due to painful losses and piling debt.

Even Shenzhen Airlines, the country's fifth largest carrier, was lurching toward collapse until March 2010 when it was acquired by Air China, a state-owned flag carrier.

With so many airlines disappearing from the sky, the proliferation of private airlines years ago seems a distant memory. Only a few are still struggling to survive, but clouds are already gathering over their path ahead.

Two Shanghai-based carriers—Spring and Juneyao airlines—were able to stay out of the red last year but are currently feeling the pressures of competitions from deep-pocketed state-owned titans. A lack of access to premium routes and financing only complicated their situation. The state carriers have received heavy government subsidies while private carriers were largely left on their own to ride out of slump.

High-speed railways also pose a threat to private air carriers. For instance, after the Zhengzhou-Shanghai Express Railway came into operation in September 2007, the Spring Airlines saw its passengers shrank by half and eventually shut down the route in March 2009.

To make ends meet, private air carriers are squeezing costs and strengthening operational efficiency, said Zheng Xingwu, a professor with the Civil Aviation University of China.

It is also necessary for the regulators to put private carriers on equal footing with state-owned competitors, said Zheng.

City Competition

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) on April 26 released a blue book on Chinese urban competitiveness, providing fresh insight into the fierce competition between China's cities.

For the fifth consecutive year, Hong Kong claimed the title as China's most competitive city, followed by Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. Qingdao, a coastal city in Shandong Province, made it to the top-10 list for the first time after hosting the sailing events of the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008.

On a broader scale, cities in central and north China are gaining a competitive edge while east coastal ones are losing momentum, said Ni Pengfei, chief editor of the book and a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics under the CASS.

The report analyzed 294 cities across the country, assessing many factors including economic growth, residents' income, business environment, innovation, efficiency and living environment.

Hong Kong maintains a hefty lead over other cities, but the divide is narrowing due to slower economic growth, said Ni.

Shenzhen and Shanghai are catching up, drawing strength from manufacturing innovation and vibrant financial industries, but their weakness lies in surging house prices and living expenses, he added.

Fund's Gloom

For China's fund management companies, 2010 looks to be a challenging year.

The Beijing-based Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co. Ltd. said in a report that 621 funds operated by the country's 60 fund management companies suffered painful losses totaling 88.46 billion yuan ($13 billion) in the first quarter, reversing a two-quarter profit-making streak.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 10 percent this year on jitters about a tumble in market liquidity—the biggest losers of which were the stock funds.

Looking ahead, fund managers seem less optimistic about the stock market as they more or less scaled back their stock presence.

The market may continue its stumble until an interest rate hike points to a clear direction of government policies, said a report by the Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Management Co. Ltd.

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