ELDERLY CONCERNS: An elderly person asks about pension security in Zhenzhou, capital of central China's Henan Province, on June 5, 2012. The local government established a consulting service to inform pensioners of their rights. Henan's elderly population stands at 11.95 million people of age 60 or older and 7.86 million people of age 65 or older, respectively accounting for 12.7 and 8.36 percent of permanent residents, according to the city's statistics (XINHUA)

Five scholars and entrepreneurs including two professors at Peking University wrote letters on July 5 to the National People's Congress, China's top legislative, suggesting amendment of the one-child policy on the basis of respecting citizens' fertility rights, so as to let them have a free and responsible birth.

China's low birth rate has continued for 20 years, said Gu Baochang, a professor at the Population Development Studies Center under the Renmin University of China.

"The problem is not whether we should adjust the one-child policy, but how to adjust it. Otherwise, low fertility will result in the relative aging of the population and negative population growth arriving earlier than expected. If reform is delayed, an unimagined impact for the country's economy and society would inevitably occur," said Gu.

According to the national census conducted in 2010 by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total fertility rate per woman in China stood at 1.18. The rate was 0.88 in cities, 1.15 in towns, and 1.44 in the countryside, all far lower than 2.1 children per woman, globally acknowledged as necessary to maintain a normal population.

"Considering some 200 million migrant population in China, the 1.18 figure might not be accurate, for the statistics may miss the number of some babies, and some women with higher ages may have repeated statistics," said Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development Research under Nankai University. "The actual rate may be around 1.6. Even that figure is still too low," Yuan added.

Total fertility in China plummeted during the past decades, according to Yuan. The rate stood at 5.8 in 1971, 2.4 in the early 1980s, and around 2.1 in 1992, but below 2 since then.

According to the census, the total fertility rate reached 2.3 in 1990, 1.5 in 1995, and 1.22 in 2000. Even by means of correction for some errors, the final rate was only 1.4 in 2000. Surveys showed that the rate was 1.34 in 2005 and 1.18 in 2010.

"Based on these figures, China has experienced low fertility rates for 20 years," said Yuan.

Immediate problems causing by the low rate is the accelerated aging society, along with reduction of labor inventory. Experts predicted that the country's labor force will begin to decline in 2013.

According to Gu Baochang, the proportion of China's population over age 60 will increase 26.69 percent in 2032, and the aging population would reach 440 million by 2050, accounting for 34.78 percent of the total.

Li Jun, Director of the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's expenditures on pensions, medical treatment, nursing and welfare facilities for the aging population would rise from 6.62 percent of the GDP in 2015 to 23.31 percent by 2050.

Statistics from a recent symposium on dealing with an aging society showed despite China's demographics aging three times faster than the United States, pension accumulation of the former is only 1 percent of the latter.