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UPDATED: November 9, 2012 Web Exclusive
Election at the Embassy
A Beijing audience watches U.S. President Barack Obama win reelection
By Joseph Halvorson & Yu Lintao
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FOUR MORE YEARS: U.S. President Barack Obama and his family greet supporters before giving a victory speech on November 6 in Chicago, Illinois (XINHUA/AFP)

Outcome announcement

Romney took an early lead in the electoral vote count, but U.S. Embassy representatives soon appeared at a podium onstage to explain the math behind the suspense.

Paul Haenle, Director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center at Tsinghua University in Beijing, drew the audience's attention to seven "swing states," which were close enough to go to either candidate in the hours leading up to election day.

To win a presidential election in the United States, a candidate must win at least 270 "electoral votes," or votes given to each state in the Electoral College depending on its size and population. A swing state like Ohio, for instance, carries 18 electoral votes, while a state with a lower population may carry as few as three.

By mid-morning, the results began to turn in Obama's favor, and the outcome narrowed down to one or two of the remaining swing states to put him over the 270-electoral vote target.

"Florida is very important," said Haenle, referring to the southern state with 29 Electoral College votes.

In the end, however, Florida was not the critical swing state that it had been in the 2000 election, when a vote recount and Supreme Court decision there gave George W. Bush the presidency.

Shortly after noon Beijing time, BBC News flashed a projection that Obama had likely obtained enough votes to win reelection. The crowd broke into cheers.

Shortly after, Ambassador Locke approached the podium to address the audience.

"Networks are now projecting that Obama has won the election for the presidency of the United States," he said. And with that, his appointment as U.S. ambassador to China is likely to remain secure.

Bilateral implications

Liu Xuecheng, a senior research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies, said bilateral relations under the Obama administration were more foreseeable than that of a potential Romney presidency. "After four years of contact, the current officials of the two countries know each other well and have established dialogue mechanisms for mutual understanding," Liu explained.

Referring to comments made during the presidential debates, wherein President Obama and challenger Romney argued over who would be more tough on China, Liu said Chinese authorities and academics have kept a calm mindset. "They don't really care about the China-bashing tactics," he added.

Nevertheless, Liu expressed concern over a recent shift by the United States in a "pivot" to the Asia-Pacific region after drawing down troops in the Middle East, questioning whether the foreign policy focus is an attempt to contain China and create alliances against it in the region.

To reduce friction between the two countries and achieve a "win-win result," Liu asserted the two sides must enhance cooperation and promote the global economy.

Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, agreed that Obama's reelection was a better outcome for China than adapting to an incoming Romney administration.

"Obama's win guarantees relatively stable Sino-U.S. relations," said Jin. However, he criticized Washington for involving itself in Asia-Pacific issues and thereby intensifying disputes, such as that between Japan and China over the Diaoyu Islands.

This year, top officials in the Obama administration spent much of their face-time with Asian countries that could be a friction point in Chinese territorial disputes. Obama hosted the Philippines' President Benigno Aquino III in June. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta toured Viet Nam and India in June and Japan in September.

On trade, Obama has been promoting the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership with 11 countries in Southeast Asia, South America and the Pacific. A final deal could come in 2013, with the United States opening up protected sectors like dairy, sugar and textiles. The administration is expected to continue filing complaints against China with the World Trade Organization, pressured by U.S. companies to boost their competitiveness against Chinese imports.

Jin identified two main challenges concerning the two countries: First, bilateral relations have entered a new stage at a time when strategic mutual trust is urgently needed; and second, new mechanisms are needed to address emerging problems and maintain bilateral relations.

 (With reporting by Corrie Dosh in New York City)

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