Despite the worst recession in decades, the U.S. economy will see a self-sustaining expansion beginning in the fourth quarter of 2010, Moody's economist said at a panel discussion organized by Dow Jones Indexes/STOXX Limited here Tuesday.
Augustine D. Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com, said the U.S. stock market will bottom out shortly, followed by home sales in the middle of this year and house prices by the end of 2009.
In 2010, a sustainable recovery is foreseeable in the fourth quarter and by the year-end house prices will resume rising, based on Faucher's recovery timeline.
"The United States is experiencing the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, and the conditions are expected to worsen before we start seeing signs of recovery," said Faucher, "The current administration, however, has taken unprecedented actions to restart growth and help rebuild the economy and financial market."
U.S. President Barack Obama signed a 787-billion-dollar economic stimulus bill into law on February 17. The sweeping economic rescue package, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, is designed to jolt the ailing U.S. economy by providing government spending and tax cuts for both individuals and businesses.
Stability in the financial system, turn in the job market and recovery in consumer confidence would be the signs to watch when the economy is ready to expand again, Faucher said.
According to the research by Moody's Economy.com, the U.S. jobless rate, which would top 12 percent in 2011 without the Obama administration's stimulus plan, should peak halfway through 2010 at close to 10 percent.
Dow Jones Indexes data released on Tuesday's discussion showed that the market performance improved after Obama took office. The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index saw an increase of nearly 1.5 percent in the first 64 days of Obama administration, compared with a 31.1percent plunge in the year-to-date change ending Monday.
(Xinhua News Agency March 25, 2009)