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Viewpoint
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UPDATED: February 12, 2007 NO.7 FEB.15, 2007
Big Plus Factor
The growth rate of the Chinese economy will be close to 9 percent or even higher, predicts Fan Gang, Director of the National Economic Research Institute. Speaking at a forum in Beijing last December, he also offers suggestions on how China can take advantage of the rapid growth to adjust its industrial mix and ensure a high employment rate.
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Manufacturing industry hot

If China wants to continue to grow, it should not be constantly adjusting its economic structure. At the core of growth mode change is improvement in efficiency, but this does not necessarily mean China's economic structure will immediately be comparable to developed countries. For example, China has a lot of labor-intensive manufacturing industries showing strong momentum, whereas countries such as the United States can no longer make such industries economically viable.

Innovation is a broad concept. Its scope not only includes a technology or a product, but the entire definition of technology, process, operation, management and marketing. We should continue to concentrate on traditional industries. We can't take a greater share in the world market until we are able to create a reputable international brand. Our traditional industrial advantage could last for dozens of years yet.

From this point of view, I don't agree with the idea of upgrading the industrial mix, but we can expand the industrial mix. We should encourage rural migration to source workers for industry. As for hi-tech industries, we should work hard to learn more and create more jobs. Only by doing so can we boost agricultural and rural development and expand farmers' employment in order to narrow the income gap between rural and urban areas and realize the objective of overall economic development.

Employment rate still low

Judging from global economic development, China is still backward, and there is still a long way to go before China achieves sustainable growth. We must consider economic and enterprise development issues from a domestic perspective.

China hasn't completed its first stage of development, and that is the stage of adequate employment. There are still 200 million rural laborers who need to be transferred to non-farming sectors. We still have a labor advantage. Why don't we continue to use such an advantage to make more money? As long as people want to wear shoes and socks, we will be able to make money from our advantage. We need those employment opportunities. Labor-intensive industries can play a major role in solving our social, rural and employment problems. These problems are fundamentally linked to low-income earners. When these people begin to work, they do not start as IT engineers, they join labor-intensive industries.

I think there is still a great opportunity for development of labor-intensive industries in China, which will help meet the demand for jobs. We shouldn't regret what we have done. Take for example American supermarket chain Wal-Mart, one of the richest companies in the world. Although the family that founded and control Wal-Mart have divided their property, if they combined their wealth, they would be one of the richest groups in the world. I think China's labor-intensive industries also have the potential to be some of the richest in the world. Currently, per-capita gross domestic product of China is less than $2,000. Our gross domestic product structure should not be the same as the United States'. If it was the same, it might be a failure. When we think of our future, we have to think about what is consistent with our changing world to ensure stable, sustainable development. If we are not persistent, even a viable industry may not be sustainable.

China is still a backward and poor country. About 40 percent of its labor force still live in rural areas. It is a tremendous task to create jobs for those people. If China develops faster, it is possible the size of the economy can again be doubled in the next five years, which would help to solve many problems.  



 
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