A swing factor

Russia supports Serbia and is one of the few major international players that Serbia can rely on. Even before the Kosovo war, Russia criticized the policy of the West, rendering strong moral support to Serbia. It offered assistance to Serbia during the war and sent peacekeeping troops there afterward. This is partly because the Russians, who believe in Eastern Christianity and are ethnic Slavs like the Serbians, have a deep-rooted historical relationship with Serbia and partly because Moscow wants to prevent any Western interference in the Chechen issue. More importantly, the brevity of Russia's "honeymoon" with the West following the collapse of the Soviet Union awakened it to the fact that it is not trusted by the West, which is eroding its strategic space by expanding NATO eastward.

Russia traditionally had vested interests in the Balkans. After the dramatic changes in Central and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s, however, only the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia including Serbia maintained friendly ties with it. That's why Russia chose to stand against the West in a bid to protect its "last brother in the Balkans." However, Russia was severely weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With a high economic dependence on the West, it was not able to contend with the West despite its intention to do so. At that time, it did not have a big say in the Kosovo issue.

In a matter of several years, notable changes have taken place, leading to the "duality" of Russia's policy toward Kosovo. On the one hand, Russia made a big fortune through its oil and gas exports. With its coffers swelling, it is in a better position to bargain with the West to safeguard its own interests. On the other hand, Kosovo's independence may have positive implications for Russia, as it will set an example for pro-Russian separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Transdniestria in Moldova. Unlike years ago, Russia now has a new option---giving an implicit nod to Kosovo's independence. It remains to be observed which way Moscow will take. Or, it may pursue a balanced solution.

The present dilemma is that Kosovar Albanians refuse to compromise their demand for independence, while Serbia rejects Kosovo's independence, only agreeing to grant it a status "higher than autonomy and lower than independence." Neither side is willing to budge. As a result, the last round of negotiations on Kosovo's status hit a deadlock in Vienna on February 21. Parties concerned are expected to hold further talks to work out a commonly acceptable solution.

Ahtisaari's proposal avoids the term "independence" for Kosovo, but the text effectively puts the territory on a path toward a split from Belgrade. Under the proposal, Kosovo would be able to have a Constitution, armed forces and a flag and other symbolic emblems politically, as well as a central bank and a separation of the debt with Serbia economically. The EU would replace the current UN administration in Kosovo. NATO troops would remain there. It also stresses that the rights of minorities including Serbs should be protected.