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World
Print Edition> World
UPDATED: April 24, 2010 NO. 17 APRIL 29, 2010
Electoral Choice
Changes are afoot as the British head to the polls
By KERRY BROWN
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With China, the Conservatives will inherit a relationship that is in good shape. There are more trade, political and cultural links now than ever before. The London Olympics in 2012 give an immediate link between the two countries, with the UK being the successor as hosts to China. Cameron will also look hard at the fact that the UK, in 2009, was the main destination for Chinese investments into Europe. He will likewise think about other investment areas where money from China might be able to work for companies, job creation and industry in the UK, deepening the links in this area between the two countries.

On climate change, Cameron was an early enthusiast for more robust measures to cut down on carbon greenhouse emissions. The recession slightly impeded this, and now, like with many other countries, economic development has come first, with less talk of trying to create a green economy in the next few years.

Public confidence in scientific claims about the impact of carbon emissions, at the same time, has declined in the last year. Even so, Cameron is likely to want to continue cooperating with China on combating climate change and continue the work started by the Labor Party. He will want continuity in the relationship rather than shifting to set out some bold new framework.

Domestic issues

Cameron has promised that, once he takes power, he will authorize a comprehensive review of defense expenditures for the UK. He has also promised that current levels of funding for both the National Health Service and the overseas development budget will be maintained.

But for the military, there are going to be tough choices, some of them over new military technology, and others about the UK's nuclear capacity. There has been talk of an almost 16 percent in spending cuts. This would never have been achieved before—even under Margaret Thatcher who, in the 1980s, was famously keen on slashing public expenditures.

Rather, it is hard to see how any government is going to be able to achieve these sorts of cuts. Cameron has claimed that he can deliver 12 billion pounds ($18 billion) in cuts to the complete UK government annual budget of about 730 billion pounds ($1 trillion) by "efficiency" savings. But that will almost certainly lead to job losses, something that has been avoidable so far.

With unemployment less than expected, he will likewise face a great deal of opposition should it increase as the economy gets better. He will therefore be faced with a classic dilemma—high debt and lower unemployment, or low debt and higher unemployment. With memories for many in the UK of a recession distant, the fallout from this might be very bitter indeed.

But trade with China is largely seen positively in the UK, and has attracted far less political flack than in the United States. There is no argument about, for instance, the rate of the Chinese yuan, and calls for re-evaluation. Nor are there claims that Chinese imports have led to rising levels of unemployment, as there have been in the United States.

It is thus very unlikely that China's huge trade surplus with the UK and the EU will figure at all in the campaign, or in the thinking of the political parties as they move toward election day. That doesn't mean that anger over job losses in the coming months might not seek to find a scapegoat in China.

In that case, Cameron and his economic policy advisors will need to have a clear message on whether or not they believe this, and what they intend to do about it. They will need to decide on supporting, or opposing, protectionist measures through the EU. Instinctively, Conservatives are opposed to any protectionism, and are free traders. But public anger over job losses might influence this, especially if the United States introduces more tariffs and grows more aggressive.

Finally, Cameron will have to make some fundamental decisions on the very political system by which he may be elected. There has been rising anger in the UK about the behavior of the members of parliament (MPs), with some of them prosecuted for corruption over their expense claims.

To date, UK politicians and politics have never before been held in such low esteem. It is very possible that this election will see a large proportion of people not voting, alienated and frustrated by the whole system. The continuing existence of an unelected second chamber (the House of Lords), of too many MPs (almost 700, for a population of 65 million people, compared with one Senator representing some 3 million people in the United States), of a crude "first-past-the-post" system that is unreflective of the complexities of public opinion, and of political parties linked to old social and class structures that have little purchase on modern society is only some of the issues.

For many in the UK, it is hard to see how as a country we are able to face our responsibilities and challenges in the world when we have put on hold some fundamental decisions at home. So, despite being from an aristocratic background and attending Eton, the UK's most elite private school, Cameron might amaze everyone by being a genuine reformer in this critical area.

We shall just have to wait and see.

(The viewpoints in this article do not necessarily represent those of Beijing Review)

The author is a senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in Britain

 

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