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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: May 10, 2010 NO. 19 MAY 13, 2010
Homegrown Hostilities
Terrorism will remain a threat to Russia's security for a long time to come
By JIANG LI
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 REVIEWING REMAINS: Russian investigators and security personnel examine the site of a bomb attack in Kizlyar, Dagestan, in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region on March 31 (XINHUA/AFP)

The latest round of terrorist attacks in Russia has exposed fundamental weaknesses in Moscow's antiterrorism efforts on its own soil.

For one thing, the attacks revealed Russia's counterterrorism capacity has suffered from a basic form of fatigue. Following more than a decade's worth of actions against terrorism, the vigilance required for constant "combat readiness" has clearly taken its toll.

Moreover, the verification of intelligence clues requires a lot of time and energy. Working under such pressure for so long a time, intelligence departments have often become overtaxed. The staff of operational units, meanwhile, are also dangerously prone to emotional burnout under the full workloads needed for such sustained periods of time.

In addition to the mental fatigue, a bitter power struggle has emerged within the North Caucasus republics themselves, causing regional instability.

To improve the situation, Moscow has begun to strengthen its control over the region. Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky said that Moscow intends to regain a dominant role over the North Caucasus region and that it is in the process of strengthening its management of the region. A significant number of high-level officials in the region, he added, may soon be replaced.

In this situation, the local authorities have voiced concern that they would lose power and, thus, the counterterrorism efficiency of relevant local departments would be affected.

What's more, Russia's Interior Ministry reforms have undermined its counterterrorism capacity. In fact, Russian leaders had long intended to overhaul the Interior Ministry itself.

This was partly due to the fact that the number of police officers employed by the ministry had reached 1.4 million—more than the total number of troops of the Russian military. Particularly in recent years, the Interior Ministry has become rife with corruption. Indeed, the moral values of its police officers have drawn deep animosity from the Russian people.

As a result, on February 18 this year, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered reforms of the Interior Ministry, including a reduction in the number of police officers and a major anti-corruption campaign. If given a full implementation, the reform could prove one of the biggest of its kind in recent years for the Interior Ministry.

Soon after, 16 high-level officials of the Interior Ministry were dismissed. Meanwhile, Medvedev announced the number of working staff in the ministry be cut by 20 percent as of January 1, 2012. This meant 280,000 of the police officers within the Interior Ministry system would be laid off over the course of the next two years. This news, not surprisingly, has had a powerful effect on the Interior Ministry's morale.

The subway and other means of public transportation have emerged as principal targets of separatists seeking to instill terror in the civilian population.

In February, Chechen rebel leader Umarov threatened to launch an "economic war" against Russia's big cities. Oil and gas pipelines, power stations and major transportation lines would be the key targets, he said.

The bombing and derailment of Russia's Nevsky Express train en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg and the sabotage of train No. 374 en route from the Siberian oil town Tyumen to Azerbaijan's capital Baku in November last year, as well as the Moscow subway bombings in March this year underscored the vulnerability of transportation in this regard.

It would be highly difficult to meet a balance between efficient transportation and safety. As one of the world's biggest and most convenient rail transportation systems, for instance, the Moscow subway has more than 170 stations, with some 8 million daily commuters. It is also equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems and security facilities.

Still, a further overall upgrade of its antiterrorism systems will severely hinder convenience for passengers while leading to huge pressure on the subway and relevant municipal departments. This would make it difficult to raise the alert level—thus providing a further opportunity for the terrorists.

The author is a research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

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