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UPDATED: June 11, 2010 NO. 24 JUNE 17, 2010
An Ending and a New Start
The 2010 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference is a milestone for international arms control efforts
By LIU CHONG
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All the efforts the United States has recently made in nuclear disarmament have an ultimate goal—to facilitate international cooperation on preventing nuclear proliferation.

This eagerness was revealed in Obama's statement at the 2010 RevCon, in which he said: "Building on our new START treaty with Russia and our Nuclear Posture Review, which reaffirms the central importance of the NPT, the United States is meeting its responsibilities and setting the stage for further cuts. We will see whether nations without nuclear weapons will fulfill their obligation to forsake them."

But it was still hard for the parties to compromise. Some experts even predicted the 2010 RevCon might collapse on its final day because of marked divergence among the parties. Fortunately, the nations could not accept another failure after the 2005 RevCon, and reached a consensus at the last minute.

Although the final document of the 2010 RevCon was carefully balanced to reflect demands by all parties, it shows significant achievements on measures toward disarmament and non-proliferation, especially a call to open talks in 2012 toward a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Middle East. By this final declaration, the international community showed a strong political will to build a safer and more secure world.

Civilian use

In recent years, to cope with climate change and as a solution to the energy crisis amid growing depletion of fossil fuels, nuclear energy has undergone globally an unprecedented expansion—a so-called "nuclear energy renaissance."

Nuclear energy was first developed in a mostly constrained way in industrialized countries. In contrast, many developing countries now have great enthusiasm and ambitious plans for nuclear power plants. And the production of nuclear power may be tripled by 2050.

This vision brings up three problems connected to the NPT regime:

First, rapidly expanding quantities of nuclear materials will make the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA's) security burden heavier. The amount of weapon-usable material under safeguards has increased six to 10 times during the last two decades, while the IAEA's budget and personnel have expanded much more slowly.

If the quantity of nuclear materials increases dramatically in the near future, it may lead to a dangerous decline in the number of IAEA inspections at every protected facility.

Thus, strengthening the IAEA's ability and protective role, as well as its capacity of instructing newcomers about nuclear energy development, should be made a priority. To that end, nations need to increase the budget for the IAEA while respecting the agency's authority. The 2010 RevCon final document stressed the role of the IAEA in several paragraphs. For the first time, it endorsed an additional protocol of the IAEA that aims to strengthen the agency's safeguards.

Second, a nuclear energy renaissance may accelerate the proliferation of sensitive technologies. Uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing have been considered major proliferation concerns. These concerns and the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy should be balanced. It would be appropriate for the parties to the NPT to develop a common understanding of building a voluntary, multilateral nuclear fuel cycle and supply mechanism. The final document supported efforts to pursue an agreement on international fuel banks and related multilateral mechanisms for assurance of nuclear fuel services.

Third, it will make the NPT's loopholes more dangerous. Since parties have the right to withdraw from the NPT under Article X, a state could develop sensitive technologies under Article IV and then quit the NPT.

To fix this loophole, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council have put forward a proposal in their joint statement to the 2010 RevCon. They called for the UN Security Council to address a situation where, even if any state party gives notice of withdrawal from the NPT, it would remain responsible under international law for violations of the NPT committed before it withdraws. The final document has recognized this view for the first time in history.

For the last 40 years, the NPT has endured as the cornerstone of the non-proliferation regime and remains the only legally binding multilateral agreement on nuclear disarmament.

Many problems, however, continue to threaten global security today, such as the huge nuclear stockpiles of the United States and Russia, preemptive nuclear strategies and the increasing trends of proliferation and terrorism.

The unstable international security environment and the eagerness of most nations for a world without nuclear weapons have made the NPT regime more valuable than ever.

At the UN Security Council's nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament summit last year, Chinese President Hu Jintao introduced a series of proposals, including maintaining a global strategic balance, giving up on the first use of nuclear weapons, and preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons while respecting the right of countries to peaceful use of nuclear energy.

His proposals provided a practical guide for future international nuclear arms control cooperation. At the 2010 RevCon, Li Baodong, head of the Chinese delegation, reaffirmed these principles.

It is vital that the international community attach equal importance to nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and security, while helping developing countries utilize nuclear energy. In doing so, the 2010 RevCon was not only a glorious epilogue, but a new starting place for further progress in ensuring humanity fully enjoys the convenience of nuclear energy in a more secure international environment.

The author is an assistant research fellow with the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

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