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Print Edition> World
UPDATED: July 26, 2010 NO. 30 JULY 29, 2010
Shock Waves
Israel's raid of a Gaza aid flotilla in May casts a lingering shadow on Middle East politics
By WANG JINGLIE
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More than 60 years after its founding, Israel has solved its survival problems and has also expanded its military clout. Now it is high time for the Israeli Government to consider improving its international image by resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

To that end, it needs to ponder the question of what kind of country it is going to be. Will it continue its military rule in the occupied territories or live in peace with its Arab neighbors?

Democracy and the Jewish identity are the two pillars of the Israeli state. If Israel persists with military rule in the occupied territories, there will be more resistance and bloodshed. As a result, the country will not be able to function as a full democracy. If it annexes these territories and practices democracy there, the Jews will lose their demographic advantage in a few years, putting the Jewish national identity at risk. Therefore, a two-state solution is the only option.

Dramatic changes have taken place in the Middle East over the past decade. After the Beirut summit in 2002, Arab states made a major compromise in their demands. They no longer wanted Israel to return all the occupied Palestinian territories, but demanded an Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied in the Arab-Israeli War in 1967. The radical Palestinian organization Hamas has also adjusted its policy in recent years and accepted this principle. At a time when the Palestinians and other Arab nations have shown a positive gesture, all eyes are on Israel to see how it will reciprocate.

Current Israeli President Shimon Peres wrote in his book New Genesis (1998) that Israel not only needs to establish a Jewish state, but also should live in peace with neighboring countries for the sake of regional peace. Attempts by Israel to restrict the freedom of another ethnic group will eventually backfire and pose threats to its own security. Israel's prosperity should be based on the talent and dedication of the Israeli people rather than land and resources.

These statements reflect the wisdom of Israel's political elites. But they have yet to be enshrined in official policy.

The Turkish factor

In a strong-worded statement issued following the flotilla raid, Turkey warned Israel would face "irreparable consequences" for its attack on civilians. It also recalled its ambassador from Israel. Moreover, Turkey has suspended military-to-military exchanges with Israel by canceling three planned joint military drills. Tens of thousands of Turkish protestors took to the streets the day the raid occurred.

As the only NATO member in the Middle East, Turkey hosts NATO bases and troops within its borders. At the same time, it is an Islamic country and an important member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, an international organization grouping 57 Muslim states.

Turkey established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, becoming the first country in the Middle East to do so. Bilateral relations have made strides since the 1990s, with frequent exchanges of visits by top leaders. In the mid-1990s, the two countries signed a series of agreements on political, economic and military ties.

Significant ones include a 1994 agreement between their intelligence agencies on security and secrecy, and a 1996 military cooperation agreement signed between their armed forces. The documents allow the two countries' warships to dock at each other's ports, while tasking Israel with assisting Turkey in modernizing its military equipment. Under the agreements, the two countries can also conduct joint military exercises while sharing intelligence.

The Israeli-Turkish ties represent the broadest and most intensive cooperation Israel has forged with other countries in the Middle East. These burgeoning ties, however, came to a screeching halt following the flotilla raid. And Israel has yet to offer a formal apology to Turkey.

Some Western media pointed out that Turkey has long attempted to become a member of the Western world. But it has been unable to integrate into Europe. In recent months, the nuclear fuel exchange deal it helped negotiate for Iran, along with Brazil, has not gained recognition from the West, heightening the country's sense of frustration. In this context, Turkey may turn eastward for more allies in the Middle East and the Islamic world in a bid to assert its role as a major power.

Despite its foreign policy adjustments in recent years, Turkey will continue to give equal weight to both the West and the East. It will not sacrifice its long-term relations with European countries and the United States, which serve its national interests. Deteriorating relations with Israel are unlikely to prompt Turkey to "turn eastward" drastically. Since the relations between the two countries are based on mutual needs, the flotilla raid will not render shaky the foundation of their collaboration. From a long-term perspective, Turkey and Israel may well repair their frayed relations and resume cooperation.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

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