STANDING GUARD: A Cambodian soldier guards the Preah Vihear Temple on the Cambodia-Thailand border (XINHUA/AFP)

The situation immediately became tense. On January 26-27, Thai troops held a military exercise in its border province Nakhon Ratchasima. Thailand also sent an additional 2,000 soldiers to disputed areas near the Preah Vihear Temple. In response, on January 28, Cambodia deployed tanks, rocket launchers and other heavy weapons. A Cambodian Foreign Ministry spokesman said the Thai military exercise was clearly provocative and warned war was imminent.

Bloody clashes finally broke out. From February 4 to 15, disputed areas near the Preah Vihear Temple were the site of six exchanges of fire between Cambodian and Thai troops. Both sides were fatigued but strained.

Deadlock

Although both Cambodia and Thailand were aware of the costs of confrontation and the benefits of dialogue, neither wanted to be the first to make concessions. As a result of the countries' differing attitudes toward external intervention as well as domestic pressure, a deadlock ensued.

Cambodia is a strong proponent of the involvement of outside parties to eliminate the possibility of conflict. According to Cambodia's Phnom Penh Post, since the conflict in January 2010, Thai soldiers have altogether killed at least 20 Cambodians and arrested dozens in disputed border areas. But Cambodian soldiers were unable to fight back. Unwilling to return to the situation of endless sporadic clashes, Cambodia longs for a third party to mediate.

In contrast, Thailand does not think third-party intervention can solve the problem. It has stressed on many occasions that the two sides should restart bilateral talks as soon as possible.

Faced with its own domestic political crisis, the Thai Government urgently needed to take a tough stance against Cambodia to restore its authority. Thailand also claimed to have a video that showed Cambodian soldiers had opened fire first. Therefore, when Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen called the recent clashes a "real war," Thailand still showed no fear.

Mediation

The UN Security Council, ASEAN and rotating ASEAN chair Indonesia are involved in mediating the conflict. On February 14, the UN Security Council had an emergency meeting in New York to address the Cambodia-Thailand border clashes. The foreign ministers of Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia, as well as representatives of UN Security Council members, attended the meeting.

The UN Security Council urged Cambodia and Thailand to display maximum restraint and to establish a permanent ceasefire. It also called on the two countries to resolve the dispute peacefully through effective dialogue.

In the meantime, the UN Security Council expressed appreciation for the efforts of ASEAN and said it would support ASEAN playing a bigger role in the matter. On February 22, ASEAN foreign ministers held a meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia, trying to urge Cambodia and Thailand to restore negotiations as soon as possible. Indonesia also proposed meetings of Cambodian-Thai defense ministers and border officials in late March.

Continuous tension is not good for either country. Border instability will inevitably take a toll on their political stability and economic development. Thailand will hold a general election this year. Currently, various political parties are trying to use the border dispute to win votes. Although Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has vowed to spare no efforts to protect Thailand's interests and rights regarding this issue, he is still accused of being too weak. Given this volatile political situation, it is impossible for Thailand to focus on economic development.

Having hardly recovered from the impact of the global financial crisis, the Cambodian economy cannot afford the cost of a war. In addition, Cambodia is highly dependent on foreign aid and investment. Border tension may hinder its efforts to attract investors, and thus adversely affect its economic development.

Cambodia-Thailand tension is also bad news for ASEAN. By 2015, ASEAN plans to create an ASEAN Community, unified economically, politically and socially. Development gaps among its member countries are a big obstacle to creating an ASEAN Community. If the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute continues to hold back Cambodia's economic development, ASEAN will face even greater difficulties in realizing regional integration.

The author is an assistant research fellow with the Institute of South and Southeast Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations