Second is serious gender imbalance. Statistics from China's National Bureau of Statistics show the country's sex ratio at birth is approaching 120 to 100, which means 40 million males will be unable to find spouses. This will trigger terrible consequences such as mercenary marriage and sex crimes.
Third is the aging population. A UN prediction says China's population above the age of 60 will account for 31.1 percent of the total population by 2050, much higher than the then world average level of 21.9 percent. A striking feature of China's current population is "getting old before getting rich."
Fourth is a decline in population quality. Birth control in cities is much more intensely controlled than in the countryside. In the vast rural areas, even in poor families, to have another baby is nothing but feeding another child. When the child grows up, he or she will bring the family more wealth. But the environment these children grow up in is not so good. Differently, for those well-educated people in cities, the high living costs and heavy working pressure and sometimes their pursuit of career success deter them from even having one baby. As a result, in Chinese society, the elite class is having fewer and fewer babies while those in backward areas are having greater numbers.
Fifth is the danger to China's economic growth. China's current population structure is in the olive mode, that is, the young and the strong make up a large middle part. This is the time when one makes and saves the biggest amount of money in one's life. High savings ratio is an important reason contributing to China's rapid economic growth. If China's birth control remains unchanged, the olive mode will be replaced by the "inverted pyramid" mode. Savings rates will drop, followed by declining investments, and China's economic growth will surely fall sharply.
Sixth is the harm to the nation's character. Generally speaking, if a family only has one child, he or she must be cherished as the whole family's treasure, spoiled not only by parents but also by grandparents. How can we expect a spoiled generation to take up the mission granted by a rising China? Civilization manages to survive and spread through people. When the population representing culture and civilization is diminishing, how can we expect culture and civilization to continue?
Continue the policy
Su Yiyang (www.rednet.cn): One-child policy is one of China's long-term national policies and it suits the country's conditions. Still, many people are eager to have more than one child. In particular, due to China's rapid economic growth, the Chinese are becoming richer and their ability to feed and raise children is also improving. However, in the vast rural areas, the unplanned birth of children is easily seen.
The policy must keep pace with the times and the key now is to curb rapid population growth. Otherwise, no matter how stringently the policy is described at the Central Government level, its control will become increasingly loose when it is implemented in the countryside. The policy should not be casually changed. Although I do not work for birth control departments, still I'm worried about the actual implementation of this policy in various areas, especially in the vast rural areas.
Liu Zhijun (Global Times): Since the 1990s, China's one-child policy has kept changing and has been made more acceptable to the public. Careful consideration is needed before the Central Government is to allow two or more children for one family and even begins to encourage child birth of the country. We need scientific planning and orderly implementation.
There is a view China's development achievements have nothing to do with birth control and moreover, birth control is hampering China's economic development. I don't think this is a wise viewpoint. The strict one-child policy has greatly cut child-raising expenses and added to capital accumulation.
We don't need to conceal the negative effects of the one-child policy, but in the face of the future, neither do we need to feel pessimistic, because the economic achievements brought by "demographic dividend" have already prepared us for the future "demographic debt" we'll have to face up to. As long as we take proper measures, final economic, social and demographic balance can be attained.
As a matter of fact, what people are against is the strict one-child policy but not the family-planning policy itself. Bearing this in mind, relevant departments will find the job easier to do.
No policy is perfect, and there is no exception with the one-child policy. To conceal the deficiencies of this policy won't help to solve any problems, but if we are too critical of the policy and ask for its instant change, that is unwise too.