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UPDATED: November 19, 2012 NO. 47 NOVEMBER 22, 2012
Which Is the Way Out?
The new Syrian opposition coalition faces two options for resolving the crisis
By Yu Lintao
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"To some extent, the establishment of the new coalition at least added weight for the opposition to conduct political negotiations with the Syrian Government. It should be an opportunity," An told Beijing Review.

Though the coalition declared it would not have dialogue with the Assad regime, An claims that such posturing may sometimes differ from its true stance.

"From the current balance of military power, it is impossible for the opposition bloc to defeat government troops without military interference from the West or regional countries. In addition, most members of the international community hope for a peaceful settlement to the Syrian crisis," said An.

An said the integration of the opposition groups is of particular significance because it could enable the opposition to play a bigger role in negotiating with the Syrian Government to promote ceasefire and end violence. Only this outcome lies within the interests of Syrian people and the expectations of the international community.

Settlement

At a regular press briefing in response to a question regarding the new coalition, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated China's stance that the Syrian crisis should be settled through a political transition process led by Syrian people.

"China has consistently held that foreign countries should not interfere with Syria's internal affairs," said An. He added that China has no private gains from the issue. China's stance is totally based on the interests of the Syrian people.

During a recent trip to Beijing by UN-Arab League joint special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, China put forward a new and more detailed and practical proposal to facilitate the political settlement of the Syrian conflict. It calls for implementing a region-by-region or phase-by-phase ceasefire and establishing a transitional governing body of broad representation.

The spillover effects brought by the ongoing Syrian crisis have severely impacted its neighboring countries. Latest statistics from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees show that there are more than 407,000 Syrian refugees in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey after the crisis broke out in March last year.

"If the crisis continues, it might bring disaster to the region and even influence the West. They should recognize the significance of resolving the crisis through political negotiations," said An.

An said that at present the largest obstacle to the political settlement of the crisis is the precondition set by the West and some regional countries that Assad must step down.

Xue hopes that U.S. President Barack Obama could give up the precondition in his second term; or else the situation may become more difficult.

Obama is faced with contradictions over the Syrian crisis. On the one hand, he is under pressure from some domestic political forces to interfere in Syrian affairs; on the other hand, he wants to change the misguided policies of his predecessor George W. Bush, seeking to withdraw troops from the Middle East, Xue said.

"Obama should admit that the Syrian authorities continue to have majority domestic support by far," said Xue.

An said it is not impossible that Obama would choose another kind of approach apart from military interference in resolving the crisis. After all, the spreading violence will be of no benefit to Washington.

He said that as the United States' strategic attention turns eastward, grappling too much with the Syrian issue does not match its foreign policy goals.

On November 14, in his first press conference at the White House since his reelection, Obama said categorically that Washington would not arm the Syrian opposition for the moment. He also ruled out an immediate recognition of the new Syrian opposition bloc as "some sort of government in exile," though his administration had declared its backing for the coalition just days before.

Email us at: yulintao@bjreview.com

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