Du thinks the most important task in grain production is to ensure the sowing acreage is not reduced. In 2012, China's grain output increased by 3.2 percent to reach 589.57 million tons, realizing nine consecutive years of growth. Despite a bumper harvest, China still imported 13.98 million tons of grain in 2012. If the sowing acreage of grain reduces this year, grain output will then reduce, exacerbating China's dependence on imported grain, an unfavorable situation for China's food security.

This year the Central Government will strengthen incentives to major grain and oil crop producing counties, raising their output bonuses by 20 percent from 2012 levels. In 2012, it offered 28 billion yuan ($4.52 billion) of bonuses to large grain and oil crop producing farmers and companies.

Related departments have also formulated measures to support pig breeding. On May 9 the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance began the purchase of frozen pork reserves to stabilize pork prices. A total of 93,700 tons of pork will be purchased.

The MOFCOM says it will closely cooperate with other related ministries and commissions in following pork production and price fluctuations and adopt measures to ensure balanced demand and supply and stable pork prices.

Will the measures work?

Regarding measures to ensure stable pork prices and balanced supply and demand, Hao Jun, an agricultural analyst with Guodu Securities Co. Ltd., said time is needed to judge how these measures will benefit grain production.

According to Hao, in China, major grain production areas are responsible for guaranteeing the country's grain security. However, since GDP is the most important indicator evaluating the performance of local officials, various local governments have become too focused on GDP growth. Because the economic benefits of planting grain are low, officials in major grain production areas prefer attracting foreign investment to the grain production business. In some places, governments have even changed cultivated land into land for industrial purposes, reducing the sowing area for grain. Policies that encourage grain planting will ultimately fail unless local governments shift their way of thinking, said Hao.

According to the MOA, on May 13 the average price of pork stood at 17.93 yuan ($2.89) per kg, a decline of 2 percent from just a few days earlier. The news that the government was expanding its pork reserves did nothing to bring favorable change.

In 2009 and 2011, pork prices both stopped their decline after the government purchased reserves and the policies at that time soon stabilized prices. However, prices failed to rise in 2012 and 2013 after the government purchased reserves. According to Hao's analysis, when the policy of purchasing pork was first initiated, it led to expectations among pig breeders that pork prices would rise. But after several versions of the policy have been adopted to little effect, expectations have been lowered.

He added that purchasing reserves affects prices down the road and doesn't have an immediate impact. Although pig breeders have been losing money for two months, they are not killing sows, or female pigs, in large numbers, and the cost of piglets remains high. That means in fall and winter, when pork consumption is high, the price of live pigs is expected to rise slowly and allow pig farmers to make money. The pork supply also won't be tight and prices won't soar.

The price of pork is an important part of China's CPI. According to Hao, the CPI rose faster in April than in March, and the major reason was the hike of vegetables. But because the fall in pork prices offset the hike in vegetables, the CPI did not fluctuate remarkably.

Hao is optimistic about food prices this year. "For all of 2013, China's farm produce prices, including pork and grain, will be stable."

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