e-magazine
Outstripping Expectations
The Chinese economy looks set to maintain stable and moderate growth in 2014
Current Issue
· Table of Contents
· Editor's Desk
· Previous Issues
· Subscribe to Mag
Subscribe Now >>
Expert's View
World
Nation
Business
Finance
Market Watch
Legal-Ease
North American Report
Forum
Government Documents
Expat's Eye
Health
Science/Technology
Lifestyle
Books
Movies
Backgrounders
Special
Photo Gallery
Blogs
Reader's Service
Learning with
'Beijing Review'
E-mail us
RSS Feeds
PDF Edition
Web-magazine
Reader's Letters
Make Beijing Review your homepage
Hot Links

cheap eyeglasses
Market Avenue
eBeijing

Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: January 27, 2014 NO.6 FEBRUARY 6, 2014
China's Economic 'Miracle'
Leading financial forecasters say 2014 may be a turning point in golden age of global prosperity, powered by China
By Corrie Dosh
Share

A full market system in China, forecast to be the largest economy in the world and probably the world's most vibrant consumer economy, can be expected by around 2020, Huang said.

"We are in the last leg of the transition of the Chinese economy to the market system and we're about to jump over the middle-income trap," he said. The problems in income disparity and growth imbalances are being overcome with the changes to the growth model.

As growth becomes more balanced, wages for the working class will rise, the workforce will shrink and the pace of GDP growth will continue to decelerate, Huang said, because the market is maturing. More volatile cycles of growth and cooling-off periods can be expected, which is a natural characteristic of a market-based economy.

In fact, China's economy narrowly missed expectations for growth to hit 14-year lows in 2013, according to the latest economic reports from the National Bureau of Statistics. Full-year growth in 2013 was 7.7 percent, steady from 2012 and just slightly above market expectations for a 7.6-percent expansion, which would have been the slowest since 1999. While a 7.7-percent growth rate is not small potatoes, it's a far cry from the double-digit growth rates that have propelled the country into the world's second-largest economy over the past 30 years.

New structure

With the implementation of the third plenum and the completion of migrating China's economic structure to a market-based economy, the future of the country will be closely aligned to its competitive advantages, said former World Bank chief economist Lin. For now, that means the economy is currently tied to China's advantages in low-cost labor, but a few years from now the Chinese economic structure will move toward more capital- and technology-intensive drivers.

The balance of state support and gradual liberalization has enabled China to maintain an average growth rate of 9.7 percent since the reform and opening up. Three decades ago, per-capita GDP for Chinese citizens was one-third the average of per-capita GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa—now, it is a "miracle" story of prosperity, Lin said. Per-capita GDP is around $7,000 in China now, and 600 million people have been lifted out of poverty.

"The decision to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and price determination will eliminate distortions. The growth in China will be more harmonious and income disparity will be mitigated. The growth will be more consistent with its competitive advantages," Lin said.

When deceleration of China's growth began to appear, many blamed intrinsic problems such as corruption, but the main reasons for the slowdown were due to external factors, he said. Exports have slowed with the global slowdown and international investment has cooled, leaving domestic consumption as the main driver for the national economy.

"Since the deceleration was due to external factors, China will turn to growth from domestic sources. I'm quite sure China has the ability to do that," Lin said. "The potential for investment is very large."

Despite China's national debt, the country maintains a savings rate of 50 percent and has $3.82 trillion on foreign exchange reserve. "You put those conditions together and I'm sure China will be able to easily maintain a growth rate between 7.5 to 8 percent in the coming few years," he added.

In fact, an 8-percent growth rate can be expected for the coming two decades, Lin forecast, if China's competitive advantages continue to be developed. China's growth is good for the world and the massive potential of the country's enormous consumer base could propel the world into a golden age of widespread wealth.

Economic factors

On the macroeconomic level, Lu Feng, NSD professor and Director of the China Macroeconomic Research Center, said the growth pattern of China has been recently shaped by the global slowdown, overleveraged and excessive debt, environmental pressures and sluggish external markets.

While overall debt is still reasonable, the rate at which it has accumulated is too fast, Lu warned. "The current debt level is manageable, but the growth rate over the past couple of years is not," he said.

Despite this, Lu predicts growth of 7.5 percent to 8 percent in real terms in 2014, with a steady rate of 9 percent to 10 percent in nominal terms.

"China will maintain its status as the world's biggest growth contributor to the global economy," he said. "Last year, incremental growth of China's GDP measured in U.S. dollars is something like $950 billion, which is equivalent to approximately 30 percent of estimated global economic growth."

Global investors are becoming more supportive of Chinese opportunities, said Huang Haizhou, Managing Director of the China International Capital Corp., with indications of a global synchronized recovery in 2014.

Shadow banking continues to play a significant role in China's economic rise, said Sun Mingchun, chief economist of China Broad Capital, preying on the increased need for funding—however that may not be a bad thing.

"We have to develop a multilayer capital market, a multi-channel financial system in China; we have to allow certain systems to grow," Sun said. "That's why I would say shadow banking is not a vicious thing. Some people think of shadow banking in a negative way. I think we need to have more financial channels. The economy cannot rely too much on bank loans. On the other hand, we need to develop a bond market as soon as possible."

The author is a contributing writer to Beijing Review, living in New York City

Email us at: yushujun@bjreview.com

   Previous   1   2  



 
Top Story
-The Sino-French Connection
-Special Reports: 50th Anniversary of Sino-French Diplomatic Relations
-Forging Ahead
-Canine Companions
-Photos: Hands-On Experience
Most Popular
在线翻译
About BEIJINGREVIEW | About beijingreview.com | Rss Feeds | Contact us | Advertising | Subscribe & Service | Make Beijing Review your homepage
Copyright Beijing Review All right reserved