The United States is pressing ahead with its anti-missile defense system plan in Poland and the Czech Republic, prompting new disputes between the Kremlin and the White House. Russians view this plan almost as a U.S. doormat being placed in front of their door. Putin previously suggested that the United States could share Russia's radar base in Azerbaijan, but so far the Americans have declined his invitation.

"Russia's stance on the Iranian nuclear issue is a protest to the United States for declaring its independent tune," An said. It is a signal to the United States that if Washington pushes Russia too hard, Russia can play its "Iran card," he added.

According to a report in People's Daily, during his Tehran trip, Putin invited Ahmadinejad to Moscow to share their views on developing their bilateral relationship and on regional and international affairs. Russia has two specific interests in Iran, An said. First, it wants to maintain its heavy arms trade with Iran; second, it wants to resume building Iran's first nuclear power station in the town of Bushehr. In March 2007, Russia stopped building the station and halted its nuclear fuel supply to Iran, due to unpaid "construction expenses" Iran owed Russia. Although Putin refused to set a date for restarting construction on the nuclear power plant, he pledged that Russia would fulfill its obligation to finish the facility as soon as possible.

Hua Liming, China's former ambassador to Iran, wrote an article about Putin's visit on his Web blog, pointing out that Iran is of special strategic importance to Russia. Because the United States keeps squeezing Russia's strategic space, the Kremlin sees countries on its "south wing" - including Iran - as its only strong point. Russia hopes this area, and especially Iran, remains independent of U.S. influence. The five Caspian Sea countries reaffirmed this strategic goal when they signed the joint statement at the recent summit, so that the United States could not use them as a springboard to strike Iran or Russia, Hua wrote.

The Caspian Sea is well known for its ample oil and natural gas reserves, which are almost one third of the world's total reserves. The Russian media previously reported that the United States intends to build a pipeline that threads Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan and connects to pipelines in the Mediterranean Sea area. But the joint statement of the five Caspian Sea countries has thwarted the plan by excluding the United States from the region's energy reserves.

No easy task

Iran's nuclear issue is far from over. Although Putin stressed during his visit that the issue should be settled through peaceful diplomatic talks, the United States did not respond. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said in a speech on October 21 that the international community was ready to impose "serious consequences" on Iran, if it did not stop enriching uranium.

Recently, there were various reports throughout the world that the U.S. Government was planning to launch military strike on Iran. "No accurate information from official sources can prove that the Bush administration is preparing for military action against Iran," said An from the CIIS. It will not be easy to solve Iran's nuclear issue, and there are only three possible ways for Washington to settle the matter, he added.

The first way is through peaceful negotiations between Iran and the United States, which would entail compromises from both sides. "The core of the Iranian nuclear issue is the bilateral relationship between Iran and the United States," An said. "The diplomatic negotiations can resolve both the nuclear issue and the bilateral tie once and for all."

The second way is for the United States to continue calling for international sanctions against Iran, which would require cooperation from big countries. If it worked, Iran would give in. But Russia and the European Union countries have closer ties with Iran than the United States, and they would be reluctant to join Washington's sanction plan. China, which always supports settling disputes through diplomacy, would not applaud either choice, An said.

The last way for the United States to deal with Iran would be by military strike. But "now is not the time for Washington to make this decision," An said. The messy situation in Iraq has left the U.S. army with very limited forces to launch another military attack elsewhere. Both the United States and Europe have been flooded with antiwar appeals. For Bush, it also would not be wise to start another war while his Republican party prepares for the 2008 presidential election. "The United Nations and U.S. Congress would not approve a war plan" against Iran, An said, adding that Iran's military strength is stronger than that of Iraq under its former ruler, Saddam Hussein.

The most probable direction for the United States to take will be to just hold off for a while, "because neither Iran nor the United States will give up its stance on this issue," An said. Iran's nuclear issue will not change much during the remainder of Bush's term, just like with other matters in the Middle East. These are Bush's political legacies that will be left to his successor, An said.