None but one
There are only two presidential candidates thus far: former military chief Sisi and left-wing leader Hamdeen Sabahi.
On March 26, Sisi resigned from his positions of defense minister, vice prime minister and commander in chief of the armed forces, officially announcing his presidential election campaign. In accordance with the Egyptian constitution, a presidential candidate must run for the president as a citizen and as such active military officers are excluded from running.
Sabahi, who came in third in the 2012 presidential election, was the first to declare his presidential candidacy. Former chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Sami Hafez Anan and Mohamed Saeed Shafiq, who lost to Morsi in 2012, expressed intentions to run for president, but ultimately stepped back because of the military's powerful influence.Sabahi's campaign resources have fallen far behind those of Sisi, leaving the former military chief as a strong favorite. The front-runner remained unknown to the public before the political upheaval in 2011. He was appointed the head of Egypt's military intelligence agency after Mubarak was overthrown. In August 2012, Sisi was promoted to defense minister, and he went on to prove himself as a military strongman with a firm grip. It is said that with the support of the interim government and the military, Sisi has locked in the political, legislation, judicial and administrative resources needed to earn victory. Sisi's win is thus nearly guaranteed, as no qualified challenger in the country has emerged.
Cracking the opposition
No political party has the power to challenge the military in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, the only potential contender, lost its ability to run in a presidential campaign after it was labeled as a "terrorist organization" by the interim government in December 2012. But the Brotherhood's political influence persists.
The interim government carried out a series of actions to strike down the Brotherhood to pave the road for Sisi. Two days before Sisi's presidential campaign declaration, an Egyptian court arrested 545 members of the Brotherhood, and rapidly sentenced 528 of them to death on charges including the murder of a policeman and attacks on a police station. The interim government sent a clear message through the mass death sentencing that anyone attempting to hinder the election will be strictly punished. The tough response was met with strong resistance by Islamic parties and students, as well as the condemnation of the international community. A new round of conflict between Morsi's supporters and the armed forces broke out, further deteriorating the country's security situation.
The coming presidential election is considered as part of the process of the military's return to dominance. Due to the military's iron-fist policy and Sisi's personal influence, Egypt has no choice but to return to the track of a military strongman's reign. Without a powerful competitor, Sisi is certain to win. And the trend of military power will not easily be reversed.
If no candidate wins over 50 percent of the total ballots in the first round of votes on May 26 to 27, the presidential campaign will be decided in the second round from June 16 to 17. However, it is widely expected that Sisi will win the first round with an overwhelming victory. The military's reign will once again fall over Egypt, and the world will be watching.
The author is a researcher with the Institute of West Asia and Africa Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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