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UPDATED: June 10, 2014 NO. 15 APRIL 10, 2014
India's Electoral Endeavor
Major political parties shake things up ahead of the general election
By Lou Chunhao
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What's more, the INC's insufficient progress in reform has dealt a crippling blow to public confidence in the ruling coalition. As the most time-honored political party in India, boosted by the political charm of the Nehru family as well as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's hailed performance as the chief designer of the country's economic reform, the INC should have recovered enough to field strong candidates. But the INC economic reform plan released in 2012 was a lackluster effort, with many reform initiatives being shelved. In addition, Rahul Gandhi, the heir of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, shows a clear lack of political experience and skill and has been unable to attract wide support.

In sharp contrast with the poor performance of the INC, the BJP and the AAP have comparative advantages. The BJP has a sound primary-level organization building system and is less tainted by scandals. BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is known for his high efficiency, diligence and skilled governance. Though his handling of the Gujarat religious conflict in 2002 drewskepticism, Modi's outstanding political capability is universally recognized. Under Modi's leadership, Gujarat developed at a breakneck pace in the past decade. It has been dubbed India's Guangdong, one of the fastest growing provinces in China. The AAP, though a relatively young political force, is popular among middle-class and youth voters as it champions the banners of anti-corruption and populism.

Unchanged election culture

Even amid busy campaigning of the election season, as political parties fight for power and party platforms are reorganized, some fundamental features within the Indian political system remain unchanged. No matter which party wins the 2014 general election, it is certain that political opportunism, money politics and coalition politics will reign supreme.

Political opportunism is very prominent in Indian elections. All major parties turn to populist policy platforms that may clash with economic laws in order to cater to voters. This "competitive populism" ends up hurting national development in the long run. For instance, shortly after the AAP won the Delhi election, it adopted a decision to ban foreign investments in the city's supermarkets. Though the move was intended to save the numerous "family stores" in the city, it ultimately damaged the normal economic development and fundamental interests of customers.

The cost of the 2014 Indian general election is estimated to reach $4.9 billion— about three times that of the last general election, and second only to the 2012 U.S. presidential election's total cost of $7 billion. With the growing amount of election spending, the Indian election system is becoming a game for the rich. Meanwhile, money politics also creates money-oriented politicians, aggravating the nation's corruption problem. Data from the 2004 and 2009 elections show that the poorest 20 percent of candidates, in terms of personal financial assets, had a 1 percent chance of winning parliamentary elections. The richest quintile, in contrast, had a greater than 25 percent shot.

Coalition politics will continue to be a major feature of Indian elections. At present, as the number of competing social forces and interest groups grow, many different political forces have emerged in Indian society—often divided by religion, caste and region. Neither of the two national-level forces— the INC and the BJP—can rule alone, or will they form a coalition government with each other. Thus, they need to align with other small parties to form a governing coalition, and as a result, small parties, as the "vocal minority," will have a greater influence on the policy making of the future Indian Government.

China policy

Judging from the current situation, chances are high that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could win the upcoming general election and Modi is likely to take the post of Indian prime minister. India's China policy under the new government is expected to remain stable for the most part. However, fine-tuning of the relationship cannot be ruled out.

On the one hand, India's overall China policy is not set for any big changes. In the past decade, China-India relations have forged ahead stably and become more mature. Even during the border standoff in 2013, the two countries remained calm and handled the incident properly. All the political parties of India recognize the importance of positive China-India relations and multidimensional cooperation. Thus, no matter which party wins the election, cooperation and stability will be the mainstay of bilateral relations.

On the other hand, as the BJP is widely known as a nationalist party, some potentially challenging changes in its China policy are foreseeable. However, we should note that as there are fewer political burdens on the BJP than on the INC when handling relations with China, breakthroughs on sensitive issues are possible. When BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee served as India's prime minister a decade ago, though his administration conducted nuclear tests on the excuse of the "China threat," New Delhi explicitly acknowledged that Tibet is an inalienable part of China for the first time.

Email us at: yanwei@bjreview.com

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