Fan Zhijun never expected his interview to arouse such ire among leaders in the domestic color TV market. In talking with China Business News, Fan Zhijun, Managing Director of the North China Area of Suning Corp., a renowned electric appliance retailer, said, “We predict that CRT color TVs will exit the market within one year and the Suning outlet newly opened in Beijing will be the first in China that refuses to sell CRT color TVs.”

While CRT (cathode ray tube) color TVs are used by most of Chinese families at present, CRT color TVs have lost their low-cost advantages, he said.

But Fan Zhijun’s assertions were inflammatory to old-school color TV makers and their advocates.

“CRT TVs will not quit from the market within one year; they will not disappear even in 20 years!” said Fan Wenqiang, Chairman of the China Trade Association of Color Kinescope.

Still, foreign brands such as Sharp, Sony, Philips, Samsung and LG, also declared recently that they have either stopped or will stop production of CRT color TVs by the end of this year.

“The CRT color TVs being sold now are inventory before last March and by the end of this year, CRT color TVs branded with Sony will all disappear in the Chinese market,” said Kang Jian, Director of Public Relations of Sony (China).

Some domestic color TV makers also indicated that although they are still producing CRT TVs now, as production costs of flat screen TVs are further reduced and high definition TV channels are gradually popularized, they won’t manufacture them in the near future. CRT TVs-with low resolution, comparatively smaller screens and no digital display capability-will have no hope in the market, they say.

But According to Fan Wenqiang, judging from the development trend in China and the global market, displays will exist in various forms. Moreover, because of pricing and national conditions, CRT TVs will occupy the market for a long period of time with irreplaceable advantages by other kinds of displays.

Jockeying for face time

In recent years, TV display technology has become fiercely competitive, with flat screen TVs, represented by LCD (liquid crystal display) and PDP (plasma display panel), encroaching upon traditional CRT color TV market share.

At large electric appliance stores in Beijing, such as Suning and Gome, flat screen TVs, especially LCDs, are more and more popular while CRT TVs are being phased out.

“Compared with CRT TVs, LCD TVs have larger and thinner screens and look more fashionable,” said Li Xue, a woman selecting TVs at Suning. “Many of my friends have exchanged CRT TVs for LCD TVs and some of them have even bought small LCD TVs for different rooms, such as the kitchen and bathroom.”

But Li also has concerns about the new technology.

“It is said that the service life of LCD TVs is only around three years while their prices are several thousand yuan higher than those of CRT TVs,” Li said.

According to Fan Wenqiang, LCD and PDP screens may be fine for the first three or four years, but as time goes by, some unstable substances in the screens will cause image brightness and contrast to decline. On average, a bulb for such devices, which costs about 2,000 yuan, works for 8,000-10,000 hours. If it works 10 hours a day, it will last about two years.

LCD and PDP TVs also consume twice the amount of electricity as CRT TVs do.

But maintenance of CRT TVs only costs several hundred at most for any needed maintenance, and fragile parts such as circuit boards can easily be replaced. Moreover, it is easy to find maintenance workers to repair CRT TVs.

In comparison, accessories for flat screen TVs are expensive. In general, screens account for over 60 percent of the total price of the TVs, but they are also the most fragile. For the foreseeable future, flat screen TVs will not be able to compete with CRT TVs in terms of maintenance prices.

Results of a survey carried out by Sino Market Research Ltd. suggest Fan Wenqiang is right: It is too early to say CRT TVs will disappear. According to its estimation, China will need 36.22 million color TVs in 2006, among which 31.1 million, or 86 percent, will be CRT TVs, while the other 14 percent, or 5.1 million, will be LCDs, PDPs and other modalities. By 2010, China still will need about 30 million CRT TVs, ranking first among all kinds of displays.

Ma Long, Deputy General Manager of the Purchasing Center of Gome Electric Appliance Group Co. Ltd., agrees with this data. Sales statistics from Gome indicate that in large cities, CRT and LCD account for 70 percent and 30 percent of the total sales volume of color TVs, while in medium-sized cities, the proportions are 85 percent and 15 percent respectively. Further, China has a huge rural market for CRT TVs.

Wu Zukai, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that there is a price difference between flat screen TVs and CRT TVs that should under no circumstance be neglected, so it is impossible for flat TVs to replace CRT TVs in recent years.

Flat profits

As trendy new items, flat screen TVs are both opportunities and challenges that TV makers face.