By September 6, 2008, which was the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the formal name for North Korea, Kim Jong Il had stopped appearing in public. South Korea raised its defense level near the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two sides. South Korean scholars carried out full studies of a possible upheaval in North Korea and the succession system in a "post-Kim era." Some South Korean NGOs made flyers propagandizing Kim's health and dropped them over North Korea.

These moves infuriated North Korea. On November 12, Pyongyang shut down a Red Cross office in Panmunjom in the middle of the Demilitarized Zone. The expulsion of South Korean personnel from Kaesong Industrial Park and Mount Kumgang came a few weeks later. By the end of 2008, North Korea had basically broken off all official connections with South Korea.

The Lee administration did not show weakness in response to North Korea's super-hard stance, but it was unable to reply strongly in any practical way. Hit by the global financial crisis, South Korea could only express its "regret" and "concern" over North Korea's behavior and keep a cold distance.

In January 2009, the two sides entered a state of "all-out confrontation," and the relations between the two sides reached their lowest point in recent decades. North Korea overwhelmed South Korea and seemed to have diplomatic control.

A matter between Washington and Pyongyang

North Korea is very clear that its real opponent in negotiations over its nuclear program is not South Korea or Japan, but the United States. The essence of the North Korean nuclear issue and even the larger issue of North Korea-South Korea relations is U.S.-North Korea relations. By mastering this essence, the problem can be solved from the root.

U.S. President Barack Obama expressed repeatedly during and after the presidential election that he would replace the Bush administration's neo-conservatism with dialogue and international coordination to settle the problem on the Korean Peninsula. The new U.S. Government shows a mild attitude toward North Korea. As the long-expected dawn comes into Pyongyang's view, it now has the means to press South Korea.

As relations between North Korea and the United States become more relaxed, South Korea's role will become less important. North Korea and the United States can even make peace without South Korea's involvement, which Seoul hates to see happen. This explains why Pyongyang has had such an iron response to Seoul's tough attitude, despite the risk of a large-scale confrontation between the two sides. As the United States prepared for its new president, Pyongyang followed the situation, adjusted its strategies and bargained with Washington.

North Korea's reports about Kim Jong Il have been closely related to U.S. moves, so as to arouse Washington's attention. For example, Kim had not appeared in public since August 2008. But once the United States removed North Korea from its list of states that sponsor terrorism on October 11, the official Korean Central News Agency published a set of photos of Kim inspecting the army. As a victorious Obama started nominating his Cabinet secretaries in December, North Korea continuously reported Kim's domestic inspections to remind the new U.S. Government that the Korean Peninsula was still a focus. On January 23, several days after Obama took the oath of office, Kim himself received Wang Jiarui, Minister of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, in Pyongyang. Through this arrangement, North Korea indirectly informed Washington that Kim's health was completely normal.

Pyongyang also took a "soft" measure toward Washington by expressing its expectations for the new U.S. Government. Pyongyang appreciates Obama's attitude about North Korea. During his campaign, Obama advocated direct dialogue between North Korea and the United States as the best way to solve the problem, and criticized the Bush administration's North Korea policy. He also clearly stated that he would like to meet North Korea's top leader.

Pyongyang also believes that top officials in the Obama administration will help heal U.S.-North Korea relations. Vice President Joe Biden, for example, insists on settling the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue through dialogue. Some high-ranking officials in the U.S. Department of State, such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, had close ties to the Bill Clinton administration, which was considered to be mild with North Korea.