North Korea abandoned the talks in 2009. But 2012 is an election year for several parties in the talks. Substantial progress cannot be expected before presidential elections in the United States and South Korea at the end of the year.

"The tension-easing move between the United States and North Korea is helpful for restarting the six-party talks, but it is impossible to restart the talks immediately. The resumption of the talks partly depends on the election results of the United States and South Korea, especially the latter," said Shi.

At present, Seoul is reluctant to restart the talks because of its hard-line policy toward Pyongyang, he said. Since South Korean President Lee Myung Bak took power in 2008, Seoul has toughened up on Pyongyang. Lee gave up on the reconciliatory Sunshine Policy of his predecessors Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun and adopted a more aggressive stance toward North Korea.

Pyongyang doesn't want to have talks with the Lee administration either, and it hopes for a change in South Korea's policy after its presidential election, Shi said.

The recent deal set the stage for further improvements in U.S.-North Korean ties, but it did not mark a substantial change, Zhan said.

Zhang Liangui, a professor of international studies with the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, is more cautious.

"The final goal of Washington is permanently dismantling North Korea's nuclear arsenal, while Pyongyang aims at normalizing its relations with the United States and demanding that the world deal with it as a nuclear power. Presently, both are impossible," Zhang said to Beijing Review.

Though no substantial progress was made, Pyongyang showed Washington that it is possible for the two to reach certain agreements, and then bilateral talks could continue, he said.

Even if the recent deal could not force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program, it at least could reduce Pyongyang's threat to the continental United States since North Korea promised to freeze the development of its long-range missile program, Zhang added.

Lingering doubts

Western media reported there are still doubts in Washington over Pyongyang's good faith in denuclearization. They said a pattern has emerged in U.S.-North Korean relations–North Korea promises to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for U.S. food aid or other concessions. The United States fears it could end up "buying the same horse twice" if North Korea eventually accelerates work on nuclear weapons.

"I think it is unlikely for Pyongyang to do that. The political consequence is too severe for the young new leader. The economic cost is also huge. It needs two and a half years to restart the nuclear program once it is suspended," said Shi.

North Korea will not take that move unless there are extremely unfriendly actions from Washington or Seoul, he said.

Not long ago, anti-Pyongyang posters were found in South Korean military barracks, which caused heightened tensions between the two neighbors. The regular joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises are also believed to fuel instability on the Korean Peninsula.

In 2005, members of the six-party talks released a joint document on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, known as the September 19 Joint Statement. The statement reaffirmed the goal of verifiable denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful manner.

"The progress made in 2005 was a result of then Roh's policy of engagement with North Korea," Shi said. "Later, however, U.S. financial sanctions on Pyongyang and the tough policy of the Lee administration forced Pyongyang's retrogression on its nuclear stance."

"As chair of the six-party talks, China has played a balancing role in resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue," Shi said. "Whenever there are overreactions by any party China tries to pull it back to the right track so that the parties can solve problems through peaceful talks. Whether in the six-party talks or the bilateral dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington, China has done its best to coordinate with other parties concerned to facilitate progress."

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