MILITARY DISPLAY: A wide array of military equipment, including tanks and missiles, rumble past the podium during a military parade marking the centennial of the birth of former DPRK leader Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 15 (ZHANG LI)

Zhang also believed the DPRK will not change the goal of strengthening its national defense, nor will it give up developing nuclear ability. The recent failure will only remind the DPRK to make more adequate preparations before taking such actions, he said. According to the DPRK's recent state budget, the country's defense budget in 2012 will account for 15.8 percent of its total fiscal expenditure.

The DPRK's satellite launch triggered strong reactions from around the world. Experts pointed out although the launch caused difficulties for peaceful talks for some time, economic sanctions cannot replace peaceful talks as the final solution to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.

In February, Washington signed an agreement with Pyongyang, promising to provide food assistance. In return, the DPRK agreed to impose a moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile launches. The United State suspended the agreement after the DPRK announced its satellite launch plan.

Talks, not sanctions

The UN Security Council strongly condemned the satellite launch on April 16, saying the move raised "grave security concerns" and demanding Pyongyang's full compliance with relevant Security Council resolutions. This statement was made by the 15-nation UN body after days of closed-door consultations.

According to the statement, since the satellite launch used ballistic missile technology, it was a serious violation of Security Council resolutions 1718 (2006) and 1874 (2009). Under these resolutions, the DPRK is prohibited from conducting launches that use ballistic missile technology.

The DPRK declared on April 17 that it now wasn't obliged to the February agreement with the United States and would continue to launch satellites, and it also rejected the UN Security Council statement condemning its satellite launch. The country stressed that it would continue to explore space for peace purposes, and develop satellite launching skills necessary for the country's economic development.

Shen said it is hard to predict the future relationship between Washington and Pyongyang. But now the chance of resuming direct dialogue between the two sides is very slim.

He suggested restarting U.S.-DPRK dialogue under a multilateral framework, and the six-party talks provide a ready-made platform. He also said the DPRK might hope to win Washington's respect with technology and change their relationship, but this is not a right way to move forward. Reform and development are more important for the DPRK to gain a sense of security, said Shen.

He pointed out hostilities between Washington and Pyongyang result from the clash of their values. If the DPRK changes its values after decades of development, then it will be a good time for the two countries to reach a final consensus, and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula will be solved. But before that day comes, confrontation between the two sides will continue, and may even worsen, Shen said.

China called for more talks after the launch, stressing that dialogue and consultations are the only right way to solve problems. "China participated in the Security Council consultations in a responsible and constructive way," said Liu Weimin, spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, adding that China believes the Security Council should make more efforts to promote dialogue and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. China also promised to stay in close touch with all the other parties concerned.

Zhang Xiao'an, Vice President of the United Nations Association of China, said the DPRK should understand that the UN Security Council's official statement is moderate. She explained that the statement reflected a balanced common understanding of the 15 nations, and it didn't authorize any new sanctions against the DPRK.

Qu Xing, President of the CIIS, said historical experience proves that sanctions have never played an active role in settling problems. "Sanctions and embargoes cannot resolve the root of this problem. The United States has been carrying out sanctions against the DPRK, but the sanctions haven't worked out as Washington had planned," Qu said.

If the related parties adopt an attitude of remaining in close touch, it will help to solve the conflict in a peaceful way, he added.

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