Given these provisions, the proposal was largely accepted by the Albanians, rejected by the Serbs and welcomed by the EU and the United States. Russia, however, said it would only support a plan or a revised agreement that is accepted by both the Albanians and the Serbs. Ahtisaari was scheduled to finish revising the draft proposal by March 10 and submit it to the UN by the end of the month. Then, Russia's attitude will be crucial. Will it veto the proposal as it has threatened to?
Gareth Evans, President of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), argued that Russia would abstain from casting its vote, thus allowing the adoption of the proposed resolution. "Even though Vladimir Putin reiterated on several occasions that Russia wouldn't support any solution Serbia disagrees with, numerous observers, ICG included, believe that Russia will eventually abstain from voting. Should Russia make such a move, Ahtisaari's status proposal may be adopted without obstacles," Evans said in an interview with Radio Free Europe.
Some European and U.S. media have asserted that Kosovo's independence is inevitable. Their reasoning is that if Ahtisaari's plan is adopted by the UN Security Council, Kosovo will naturally gain de facto "conditional independence," while if Russia uses its veto, the Kosovo Parliament will declare independence, which is set to be recognized by countries like Britain and the United States.
Kosovo is already in upheaval. Some 3,000 Albanians participated in a demonstration against Ahtisaari's plan in the capital city of Pristina. Believing that the autonomy the plan gives to the Serbs will essentially result in the separation of Kosovo and a possible war, they demanded that the government should immediately declare independence. Protesters clashed with the police. Two Albanians were killed and over 80 were injured. Thousands of Albanians staged a similar demonstration on March 2.
These protests are evidence that even if Kosovo becomes an independent state in conformity with the current proposal, the possibility of violence will not be ruled out, as some Albanians still have grievances. Furthermore, won't Kosovo's independence arouse the nationalist sentiments of the Kosovar Serbs and Serbia? Won't it trigger a chain reaction in Albanian-populated western Macedonia and Bosnia? It seems even if Kosovo gains true independence, it does not necessary bring about peace and stability in the Balkans and Europe at large.
The author is a scholar at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
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