Both Russia and the EU are considering how to protect themselves against future gas disputes. Putin said on January 18 that it was an urgent problem for Russia to find new gas supply routes. Russia now plans to establish a pipeline to pump natural gas through the Baltic Sea to a location near Greifswald in north Germany, known as the North Stream gas pipeline, and a pipeline through the Black Sea, known as the South Stream gas pipeline.

In October 2008, Russia, Iran and Qatar held a meeting in Tehran. The international community guessed it was a step toward setting up a natural gas cartel similar to OPEC. If such an organization is formed, Russia will control international gas prices.

As a victim of this conflict, the EU is taking action as well. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said on January 20 that EU members should draw lessons from this energy crisis and enact measures to guarantee energy safety. Barroso said that the EU must encourage a more diverse gas supply, enhance the energy utilization rate and decrease carbon dioxide emissions. The EU will also focus more on developing alternative fuels.

Bargaining chip

Aside from economic interest, Yang pointed out that this conflict also reflected Russia's strategy for energy diplomacy. "Russia's activity is connected with the upcoming Ukrainian presidential election," he told Beijing Review.

There are two political tendencies inside Ukraine: pro-Russian and pro-Western. When pro-Russia Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma was in power, Russia sold gas to Ukraine at an extremely low price since Ukraine was still an ally. Yang said that Ukraine has owed Russia money since the Kuchma era, but it never became a source of tension because Kuchma's diplomatic strategy of maintaining balance between Russia and the West was understandable and acceptable to Russia.

The Orange Revolution in 2004 installed a pro-Western president, Viktor Yushchenko. Rather than an ally, Russia now saw Ukraine as a threat. Yushchenko has actively courted U.S.-led NATO during the past four years, enraging Russia. As a country that borders both Russia and the EU, Ukraine's European leaning threatens Russia's security in the west. "Ukraine's participation in NATO is unacceptable to Russia," Yang said.

In addition, Russia's lease on Sebastopol Harbor in Ukraine will expire in 2017. One precondition of NATO admitting Ukraine as a member is that there be no foreign military base on Ukrainian territory. Yushchenko plans to run for reelection-if he wins, Ukraine will continue to pursue NATO membership, Yang said. Once Ukraine joins NATO, Russia's Black Sea Fleet will lose control over the mouth of the Black Sea and the Strait of Bosporus.

Russia has demonstrated its power through this energy conflict, reminding the pro-Western forces in Ukraine that Russia has its hands around Ukraine's throat.

"Russia's energy diplomacy would further widen the gap between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces in Ukraine," said Yang. Besides, the EU will be alert of Russia role in energy security once it realizes how much Europe depends on Russian energy, he added.

But the future of the EU and NATO enlargement is largely influenced by the United States, Yang said, adding that the enlargement process is an index for the U.S.-Russian relationship.

Russia has sent a message of reconciliation to U.S. President Barack Obama. "If Obama gives up the Bush administration's unilateralism and ideological standard, there will be more cooperation between Russia and the United States instead of conflict," Yang said, "and the situation between Russia and Ukraine will ease up, even if pro-Western forces win the presidential election."

By contrast, if the U.S. Government continues to push forward the enlargement plan, its conflict with Russia will grow worse. "As long as Ukraine and Georgia continue their pursuit of NATO membership, there is the possibility of a similar energy conflict," Yang said.