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UPDATED: May 9, 2009 NO. 19 MAY 14, 2009
Breaking the Ice
Relations between the United States and Latin American countries are warming up, but controversies remain
By SUN YANFENG
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They therefore have great expectations for the United States to reestablish rapport with them. G20 members, such as Brazil and Mexico, hope to strengthen multilateral cooperation with the United States to jointly cope with global issues such as economic growth, trade protectionism, the environment and security. Traditional U.S. allies in Central America hope that the United States will give them special treatment in immigration and investment policies. Radical left-wing countries, such as Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, have also toned down their anti-American rhetoric.

Even Cuba, which adopts a different ideology, hopes to improve its relations with the United States. On the one hand, it needs a stable external environment. Since the United States has long been hostile to Cuba, Cuba has to maintain a large military and devote huge diplomatic resources to dealing with the U.S. diplomatic blockade. On the other hand, it needs foreign investment and markets to develop its economy. Most Western companies dare not invest in or trade with Cuba because of the long-term U.S. embargo. Due to the lack of foreign investment and tourists, Cuba is unable to exploit its rich mineral and tourist resources.

Cuba has speeded up its reform since Raul Castro took office last year. In March, the country underwent a major government shakeup. Former Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, generally regarded as a hardliner against the United States, was replaced by Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla, who was the permanent representative of Cuba to the United Nations from 1995 to 2003. The move was viewed as the beginning of Cuba's adjustment of its policy toward the United States.

In early April, a delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives visited Cuba and had a rare chance to meet retired Cuban leader Fidel Castro. The delegation also held closed-door talks with Raul Castro for hours. All this is evidence that Cuba sees great value in improving its relations with the United States. In response to Obama's decision to ease sanctions against Cuba, Raul Castro said Cuba is willing to hold negotiations with the United States at any time and place, even on the issues of democracy, freedom and human rights, signaling that rapid and subtle changes are taking place in Cuba-U.S. relations.

A controversial 'new era'

At the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, Obama said dialogues at the summit launched "a new era of partnership" between the United States and Latin American countries. However, it is certain that Washington's policy adjustments will be country specific. First of all, it will strengthen strategic cooperation with major regional powers. In the face of the spreading global financial crisis and its declining regional influence, the United States badly needs the strategic support of major regional powers. It is eager to work together with Brazil, Mexico and Chile in reforming international financial institutions, protecting the regional energy system and handling such issues as immigration and drug trafficking.

The United States will also maintain close ties with its traditional allies. Mexico, Colombia and Central American countries are America's most faithful allies in Latin America. Mexican President Felipe Calderon was the first Latin American head of state to visit the United States after Obama's election. Mexico was the first leg in Obama's Latin American tour. During talks with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez at the Fifth Summit of the Americas, Obama promised to continue to provide military and economic assistance to Colombia and to visit the country on his next trip to Latin America. In addition, the United States will try to repair relations with radical leftist regimes in the region.

Despite the recent rapprochement, the United States and Latin America will hardly be able to restore the close relations they enjoyed during the Kennedy administration in the 1960s. The Obama administration is unlikely to put Latin America on its list of strategic priorities, which includes the domestic economic crisis, the Middle East and East Asia. Given the rise of leftist forces in Latin America and the region's pursuit of an independent and diversified approach to diplomacy, Washington's ability to control and influence Latin American affairs is bound to decline, as evidenced by deepening disagreements on free trade negotiations and regional security.

The United States will not be able to bridge its ideological gap with leftist regimes in a short time. Cuba has announced that it will not seek to improve relations with the United States at the cost of its socialist system. Raul Castro said at the ministerial meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in Cuba in April that Cuba would not negotiate its sovereignty or political and social system with the United States. Obama, however, has made it clear that the United States will not possibly lift its embargo against Cuba unless Cuba takes concrete actions in the political field. Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia have amended their constitutions to allow their presidents to be reelected indefinitely. The "pro-dictatorial" trend has strongly annoyed the United States.

Trade disputes between the United States and Latin American countries are projected to mount as well. The Democrats have all along been critical of Latin American countries' human rights records, labor policies and environmental protection efforts. The U.S. Congress, under their control, is unlikely to pass the free trade agreements the United States has signed with Colombia and Peru. Latin American countries are concerned that rising trade protectionism in the United States may hurt their steel and farm produce exports. U.S.-Latin America trade relations seem poised to encounter a host of challenges as the U.S. economic landscape changes.

The author is an associate research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

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