LOCKDOWN: Soldiers stand guard in Hama in central Syria on November 17 (YIN BOGU)

Syria has close political and military relations with Russia and Iran. Russia has a long-term naval base at Syria's Tartus port, and maintains an intimate relationship with Syria. On October 4, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution presented by France, Germany, Portugal and Britain meant to condemn the "continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities."

Most Syrians are Sunni Muslims, but the ruling group belongs to the Alawite minority, a Shiite sect. Iran, which is a Shiite nation, thus has a close relationship with Syria. If the al-Assad regime is overthrown, Syrian Sunnis will come into power, which will break the Iran-led "Shiite crescent." This could trigger a multilateral war in the region. Also, the regional balance of power will be tilted.

In addition, Syria plays a central role in the anti-U.S. bloc in the Middle East, which consists of Syria, Iran, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas movement. A power shift in Syria will lead to a serious domino effect on regional security.

Syria also keeps traditional links with European nations. For example, both the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership in the 1990s and the France-led Mediterranean Union plan in 2008 tied Europe's economic interests together with Syria. The European Investment Bank so far has invested $1.3 billion in infrastructure projects in Syria. Moreover, European nations like France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have been Syria's major oil clients for a long time. The EU had hoped al-Assad would play the role of a stabilizer in the Middle East, and declaring sanctions against Syria was a painful decision for the EU.

For all their sanctions, Western countries still want to avoid actual military actions against Syria. Washington's attitude is the key. The Barack Obama administration wishes to settle the Syria problem through sanctions instead of military force. President Obama has issued an order to freeze the Syrian Government's assets in the United States, ban Americans from investing or running businesses in Syria, and forbid U.S. companies to import oil products from Syria.

The United States and France will have presidential elections next year. And Western countries usually don't launch wars during presidential election years. Based on this, Syria will be safe for a period of time. Although the Arab world has disagreements on the Syria problem and some Arab countries have chosen to put more pressure on Syria, their moves are unlikely to have a major impact on Syria's overall situation. As long as Western countries don't change their stances on the Syria problem, Syria will be free from military intervention in the foreseeable future.

But the al-Assad regime still faces internal risks. If the West decides to interfere militarily, a civil war will erupt in Syria between the Alawite minority and the Sunnis. The Alawite minority, which now controls the country's government, military and security forces, accounts for 30 percent of Syria's total population, while the Sunnis take up 70 percent.

Without external military intervention, al-Assad will be able to put the country's situation under control. If external military intervention occurs, Syria will likely be the next Libya. But before that happens, al-Assad still has time to carry out reforms at home to ameliorate the crisis.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences