Opinion
Chinese Economy Hard Landing Unlikely: Fitch Ratings
The characteristics of China's financial system and broader economy militate against a disruptive outcome
Edited by Chen Ran  ·  2016-04-07  ·   Source:

China will be able to avoid a hard landing in the years to come, said a report released by Fitch Ratings.

China has the financial and administrative resources to avoid a hard landing in the near term despite the economy's structural vulnerabilities, said the credit rating agency.

While the rising leverage can cause systemic vulnerability, the characteristics of China's financial system and broader economy militate against a disruptive outcome, it said.

"China's financial system is dominated by banks and funded overwhelmingly by retail deposits. Both the banks and borrowers are either state-owned or heavily state-influenced. These factors combine to suggest that the kind of collapse of confidence among creditors that might precipitate a financial crisis is unlikely in China," it said.

"We expect the economy to grow between 6 percent and 6.5 percent in 2016 and 2017. We also think China has the will and the means not to devalue the yuan substantially against its new basket -- we expect the yuan to weaken by only around 5 percent against the U.S. dollar over 2016," said the agency.

Fitch said it broadly agrees with the Chinese Government's assessment that the macroeconomic fundamentals do not necessarily point to a substantial depreciation of the yuan.

"China runs a large and rising current account surplus, which we expect to exceed $300 billion in 2016. The country as a whole is a substantial net external creditor, and the foreign reserves buffer remains strong at $3.2 trillion," the agency explained.

(Xinhua News Agency April 6, 2016)

China
Opinion
World
Business
Lifestyle
Video
Multimedia
 
China Focus
Documents
Special Reports
 
About Us
Contact Us
Advertise with Us
Subscribe
Partners: China.org.cn   |   China Today   |   China Pictorial   |   People's Daily Online   |   Women of China   |   Xinhua News Agency   |   China Daily
CGTN   |   China Tibet Online   |   China Radio International   |   Global Times   |   Qiushi Journal
Copyright Beijing Review All rights reserved 京ICP备08005356号 京公网安备110102005860