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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: October 28, 2008 NO. 44 OCT. 30, 2008
MARKET WATCH NO.44, 2008
China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter amid the global economic recession
 
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Numbers of the Week

1 trillion yuan

The total premium collected by domestic insurance companies will surpass 1 trillion yuan ($147 billion) this year, according to the China Insurance Regulatory Commission.

2.3 million yuan

Companies in Beijing, which are high pollution emitters, can receive as much as 2.3 million yuan ($337,000) from the municipal government if they end their production activities.

TO THE POINT: China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter amid the global economic recession. It was largely reflected in the fiscal revenue in September, which climbed only 3.1 percent year on year. Inflation was gradually brought under control as consumer prices last month increased 4.6 percent year on year-the lowest growth rate in the past 15 months. The Central Government issued a package of policies to stimulate property purchases on seeing citizens' reluctance to buy homes. In addition, the government raised export tax rebates to boost exports. The Agricultural Bank of China has completed its financial restructuring and now wants to be a "profit-seeking" lender instead of a "policy-driven" bank.

By LIU YUNYUN

CPI-up 4.6 percent

"Combating inflation" ceased to be the government's priority as the consumer price index (CPI) growth rate continued to drop. Instead, the government has switched the focus of the country's macro-control policies to "maintaining growth" against the backdrop of the global economic downturn.

In September, the CPI grew 4.6 percent year on year, but fell 0.3 percentage points compared with that of August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The CPI growth rate dropped for five consecutive months, demonstrating that government efforts to cap runaway inflation were paying off. Economists expect inflationary pressure to continue to ease in the fourth quarter.

Food prices, which account for one third of the CPI's weight, increased 9.7 percent in September year on year. Prices of pork, vegetables, grain and fruits had all seen moderate increases, while prices of edible oil and fish soared significantly by 16.2 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively, from that of September last year. Prices of clothes, transportation, telecommunications services and recreation fell.

"Since inflationary pressure has been greatly eased, the country should be cautious about weakening economic growth," said Li Xiaochao, the NBS spokesman. He said the government could have more leverage to implement economic control policies, expand domestic demand and loosen price controls of resources.

PPI-up 9.1 percent

Although CPI growth decelerated, the producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices of goods when they leave factories, grew at a fast clip of up to 9.1 percent in September, according to NBS.

Energy prices hovered at a high level. Coal prices, for instance, soared 40 percent in September. Experts feared that the rapid PPI growth could trickle down to the CPI, but no effect has been seen yet.

Energy prices are expected to drop in the fourth quarter, because weak international demand could lead to price decreases for major energy products. For instance, crude oil futures in the international market plunged dramatically to less than $70 a barrel in October from their peak of $140 per barrel earlier this year.

Fiscal Policy Dilemma

China's rapid fiscal revenue growth was diminished by the economic slowdown, and the year-on-year growth rate fell month by month to 16.5 percent, 10.1 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, in July, August and September.

Compared with a 33-percent year-on-year gain in the first half, the third-quarter fiscal revenue reversed its course. In September, the country's national fiscal revenue stood at 422 billion yuan ($62 billion), growing a mere 3.1 percent year on year, according to the Ministry of Finance. The ministry said declining company profits and the gloomy stock and property markets added pressure to fiscal revenue collection.

Some experts now worry that the declining fiscal revenue might wipe out prerequisites for further tax cuts. The global economic downturn has taken its toll on China's GDP, which grew by a lower-than-expected 9 percent in the third quarter. Companies are awaiting government tax cuts to boost their performance. Meanwhile, fiscal expenditures rose sharply because of heavy investment to rebuild Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken areas as well as a big increase in regular expenditures dedicated to serving the public, according to the Ministry of Finance.

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