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Market Watch
Business> Market Watch
UPDATED: December 22, 2008 NO. 52 DEC. 25, 2008
MARKET WATCH NO. 52, 2008
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Numbers of the Week

70 billion yuan

The government plans to invest 70 billion yuan ($10.1 billion) in its largest-ever nuclear power plant construction project in Yangjiang, Guangdong Province.

90%

More than 90 percent of China's farmers, or 815 million, had joined the country's rural cooperative medical insurance system by the end of September.

TO THE POINT: Despite chilly headwinds in the international market, Chinese domestic consumption grew a robust 20.8 percent in November year on year, the ninth consecutive month of growth of more than 20 percent. But bad news quickly followed. Industrial value-added output grew merely 5.4 percent in November, the second instance of single-digit growth since 2002. Centrally administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) saw their profits plunge 26 percent last month. The harsh job environment prompted the government to ensure there would be no layoffs at the SOEs, but salaries may be cut to offset the profit drops. Ping An, the country's second largest insurer, had huge losses from its investment in the troubled Belgian financial giant Fortis NV. The Chinese currency took its first step into the international market as the central banks of China and South Korea signed a bilateral currency-swap agreement.

By LIU YUNYUN

Retail Sales Grow

China's retail sales grew vigorously in November by 20.8 percent year on year, cushioning the blow of shrinking exports on the domestic economy. Consumer purchases are replacing exports in propping up domestic economic growth in times of shaky external conditions.

The Chinese spent 979 billion yuan ($143 billion) on retail purchases in November-the ninth consecutive month of more than 20 percent year-on-year retail growth. A National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report said retail sales have gained momentum since the beginning of the year. In the first 11 months, domestic retail sales totaled about 9.8 trillion yuan ($1.43 trillion), an increase of 22 percent year on year, while the growth rate accelerated 5.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It was the fastest nominal growth since March 1996.

Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a relevant report that the government's 4-trillion-yuan ($586 billion) fiscal stimulus package has boosted consumer confidence and calmed jitters about the economic outlook.

But experts also warned of a slowdown in consumer consumption in the coming months, because of economic recessionary pressure and falling personal incomes in the event that more companies are shut down and the unemployment rate rises.

Sales of construction materials fell the sharpest in November by a breathtaking 32.6 percent year on year, a chain reaction following the property market downturn. Sales of telecommunication devices also dropped by a mild 4.8 percent.

Industrial Value-added Growth Slumps

The growth rate of industrial value-added output kept falling and only grew 5.4 percent in November year on year, the second instance of single-digit monthly growth since March 2002, following 8.2 percent growth in October.

Many scholars attributed the drop to weakening international demand for Chinese products and falling domestic demand for homes and cars. The auto market suffered a 15.9-percent decline in monthly sales with only 714,000 autos sold in November.

Zhang Liqun, an economic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said large inventory buildups were also an important reason for the downturn in industrial value-added output.

"Previously, when raw material and energy prices surged, factories stockpiled huge quantities for fear of further price hikes," Zhang said. "Unexpectedly, the wind has turned against them since the middle of this year and trapped them in a dilemma." He added that producers needed time to absorb all the inventories before embarking on new projects.

Ping An's Big Loss

Ping An means "safe and sound" in Chinese, but that has not been the case when it comes to the insurer's investment in the beleaguered Belgian company Fortis NV.

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