MORBID SEARCH: Ground Self Defense Force soldiers form a line to search for missing people in the water covered rice fields at Ishinomaki on April 1, 2011. The toll in the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan has risen to 11,800 on April 2, with 15,540 people remaining missing (Xinhua/AFP)

Natural disasters elsewhere have had an impact on some—but not all—prices. A good example is in the tourism industry. For Japan, the effect on tourism will be small, but there is likely to be a price effect, largely for items impacted by the quake and for resources in short supply during reconstruction. Given the impact of the quake and tsunami on agriculture, food prices could be affected. During the reconstruction phase, prices of materials needed for rebuilding will also rise.

The scale of the disaster and future recovery spending is likely to underpin prices of certain foods and a number of raw materials. Notwithstanding these price effects, the wider impact on the world economy should be manageable.

One result of this earthquake has been damage to some of Japan's nuclear energy facilities. In the wake of past energy shocks, Japan sensibly (given its industrial growth) moved toward greater energy efficiency and diversified energy use. One consequence of this was growth in its domestic nuclear energy capability. It has 55 nuclear power stations that provide one third of its domestic energy.

While the quake has resulted in blackouts, it is still unknown how long energy production will be reduced. If this persists, the economic impact could spread from immediate reconstruction costs to lower overall output levels across a broader part of the economy. This might lead to increased demand for non-nuclear energy, specifically oil. Japan has strategic stockpiles which could be used. Japan is the third largest consumer of oil behind the United States and China. It consumes just over 4 million barrels a day. Last year, global oil demand was 86.7 million barrels a day, with emerging economies accounting for 41.6 million barrels a day and advanced economies making up the rest.

The earthquake could push up demand for energy imports, despite an initial negative effect, but this is hard to quantify.

Not only does Japan import all of its energy needs, it also re-exports a proportion of what it refines. Some of the refinery fires are likely to be closed for some time. This may impact not only the quantity of overall oil demand, but also demand for specific petroleum products.

The regional impact is unlikely to be significant. The implications for exports of Asian economies excluding Japan are likely to be mixed. Weaker near-term growth in Japan could have a negative impact on, for example, the Philippines' exports of semi-conductors to Japan, whereas Indonesian commodity exports may benefit from reconstruction-related demand from Japan. In addition, several economies could experience a positive boost if Japan's economy recovers later in the year. The Japanese earthquake is likely to have less of an impact on economies such as India and Singapore where trade with Japan constitutes a relatively small share of total trade.

A disaster can also have unexpected consequences. For instance, will this event detract from Tokyo's attraction as a financial center? How will it influence other countries' nuclear policies? Then there is the impact on Japanese politics, which has been unstable in recent years; how the government responds to this disaster could influence the country's future.