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UPDATED: November 30, 2009 NO. 48 DECEMBER 3, 2009
Crisis Focus: An Exporting Way Out?
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With a consumer base increasingly hesitant to readopt spending habits, the U.S. economy seems to be caught in a tight spot. But the country still boasts a solid manufacturing base and remains a world leader in technology. So is it possible for the United States to switch to an export-driven growth model, and what efforts should be made for such a transition? Zhao Zhongwei, a senior researcher with the Institute of World Politics and Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed these issues in an article recently published in the Shanghai Securities Journal. Edited excerpts follow:

There is no doubt that the U.S. economy is losing its risky appetite for debt-leveraged growth. This change of taste has been the leading reason why the U.S. Government is looking for an alternative path that ensures more stable and sustainable growth. U.S. President Barack Obama has yet to ask his economic advisors if the shift to an export-led dynamic is a viable solution to the economic problem.

To answer that question, we should first take a deeper look at the manufacturing potential of the country.

The U.S. manufacturing industry has topped the world in terms of production efficiency thanks to its strong ability to innovate with technological advances. Meanwhile, huge investments in research and development have allowed productivity efficiency to grow at a faster pace. This explains why the American industry could maintain an advantage over other countries despite high labor costs.

Another area of prominence is the U.S. service trade sector that has established a strong global foothold. Its competitiveness largely comes from finance, transportation, education, and telecommunications services. With trade freedoms taking hold all over the world, the U.S. services are expected to further pick up steam.

So it would be baseless to blame the manufacturing industry for the huge trade deficit. There is, however, a more inherent reason for the financial potholes.

The manufacturing industry is struggling with mounting financial burdens from soaring energy costs, excess industrial regulation burdens, and rapidly increasing employee medical costs. These are factors out of industrial managers' control and are expected to erode the competitive edge of the manufacturers. Worse still, the policymakers have not shown any readiness to alleviate the mounting pressures.

To save costs and preserve cash, many U.S. companies are increasingly spreading out their non-core businesses, ranging from handling payrolls to running customer call centers. With emerging markets like China and India improving their technological prowess and maintaining cheap labor, the outsourcing trend is gaining force. This has allowed U.S. giants to focus on their core businesses, but also has put a lid on the scale of U.S. exports and domestic job creations.

After all, more efforts must be made to strengthen the manufacturing sector and push forward exports.

First, measures must be taken to cut operational costs of the manufacturers, such as improving the medical health and legal system.

Second, press ahead with technological advances to underpin the advantages in hi-tech sectors.

Third, foster new growth industries, such as the clean-energy businesses, which are environment-friendly and conducive to exports and job creations.



 
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