"Suppose every mainlander eats a mango. That would amount to 1.3 billion mangoes, far exceeding the total output of mangoes in a year in Taiwan," Lien Sheng-wen, a member of the Kuomintang (KMT) Central Standing Committee and son of Lien Chan, former chairman of the KMT, said during a Taiwan fruit promotion event in Shanghai in September.

The younger Lien, a rising political star, even joked, "I am just like these mangoes, big, round and fat, so I think I'm qualified to be the representative of Taiwan fruits."

Lien's efforts to promote Taiwan fruits are also aimed at building on the achievements of his father, who made a historic visit to the mainland and met Chinese President Hu Jintao in April last year. After Lien Chan's visit, the Chinese Government announced it was increasing the number of categories of fruit permitted to be imported from Taiwan from 12 to 18, with 15 of them enjoying zero tariff treatment.

Cross-strait agricultural cooperation should have bright prospects but has made no actual progress, given the political tension across the Taiwan Strait. Public opinion holds that the success of the fruit trade might break the ice for cross-strait agricultural product trade, but it has not worked out that way.

The cross-strait forum on agricultural cooperation that was due to be held in Taipei had to change its location to Boao, Hainan Province, because of resistance from the Taiwan authorities.

Fruit exports

Taiwan produces an abundant amount and variety of fruits, and in 1950s, as the island's economy was recovering, Taiwan gained a toehold in the markets in Japan and the West by exporting its fruits. Fruit exports used to make up over half of the island's export volume.

But fruit exports have encountered difficulties in recent years, largely because of a saturated market. In particular, growers in the center and south of the island, who produce high-quality tropical fruits, have had a hard time.

According to an analysis by Taiwanese agricultural experts, the island's fruits are losing ground to the United States and other rivals in Southeast Asia. In addition, the domestic market has reached saturation point. Thus, the only way out is to enter the mainland market. It's estimated that if one third of Taiwan's fruits are sold on the mainland, growers in Taiwan can at least break even.

Since the zero tariff policy came into effect, a large amount of fruits from Taiwan have been sold on the mainland, easing the surplus crisis. According to Li Weiyi, Spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China's

cabinet, the total volume of fruit imports from Taiwan in 2005 reached 3,318 tons with a total value of $3.22 million, exceeding that of the previous year by a large margin.

The mainland magnet

Agriculture in Taiwan has been in decline since the 1980s, when industrialization and urbanization began to pick up speed. The island was beset with problems, such as too small-scale production, slow agricultural growth, a lack of agricultural R&D funds and the aging of the rural population. After 2002, the average price for agricultural products dropped by 30-40 percent and farmers' incomes fell.

In contrast, the mainland is an enormous consumption market for agricultural products. Take Shanghai for example. The city of approximately 20 million people consumes 1,000 tons of pork, 330 tons of fowl, 800 tons each of milk and water, as well as 10,000 tons of vegetables, at an annual total cost of $8 billion.

"If we can combine the mainland's rich resources and huge consumption market with Taiwan's advanced marketing modes, the industrialization of agriculture across the strait will be fostered," said Tian Zhihong, Associate Professor at the Economic Management Institute under the China Agricultural University.

Last year, China overtook the United States to become Taiwan's largest export destination. Statistics from the Department of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Affairs of the Ministry of Commerce in July showed that cross-strait indirect trade totaled $50.2 billion in the first half of 2006, an increase of 22 percent over the same period last year. The mainland's exports to Taiwan reached some $9.6 billion but imports from Taiwan hit $40.6 billion, producing a $31 billion trade surplus for Taiwan. Other figures from the Taiwanese authorities show that in the last 10 years the island's trade surplus with the mainland has amounted to $140 billion.

"We can't imagine what Taiwan would do without the mainland market against the backdrop of globalization," said Lin Junguang, Assistant to the President of the Taiwan Businessmen's Association in Xiamen.

Break through the hurdle

However, cross-strait cooperation faces considerable hurdles. "Man-made resistance" is prevalent, said Peng Weixue, a scholar at the Institute of Taiwan Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Agricultural technology exchange is key to the cross-strait agricultural product trade, but Taiwanese authorities insist that while they can sell agricultural products to the mainland they cannot sell technology.

Li Ruihe, a famous tea businessman from Taiwan, noted that China has the world's largest tea production, while Taiwan's tea processing technology is more advanced. If the mainland's tea leaves could be sold to Taiwan and then exported to foreign countries after some processing, it would be beneficial for both Taiwan and the mainland.

"It's just an excuse that the Taiwanese authorities are unwilling to share agricultural technology. The deeper reason is that the south Taiwan agricultural area is where the [government] wins most of its votes during elections. Once agricultural technology can be exchanged, it inevitably leads to frequent manpower exchanges, which makes it hard for the Taiwan authorities to control their political base," said Peng.

In other terms, the cross-strait fruit trade faces a big bottleneck.

For political reasons, fruits exported to the mainland by air must make a detour through Hong Kong, while those shipped by boat must detour via Hong Kong or Japan. Thus, transportation costs are high, and the fruits do not stay fresh because of the longer travel time.

According to Zhan Jianjun, marketing manager of a Taiwan fruit company, it takes about two or three days for fruits to arrive in Beijing from the growing region by air and about a week by sea. By the time the fruits arrive, one third of the cargo has spoiled.

High transportation costs also result in high prices. On average, 1 kg of fruit costs over 40 yuan, much more expensive than mainland fruit. For this reason, most of the consumers of Taiwanese fruits are relatively well off. In some shopping centers in Beijing and Shanghai, only 15 kg of Taiwan-produced fruit is sold each day.

If direct links in mail, transport and trade between Taiwan and the mainland are realized, transportation costs could be cut in half, experts say. Along with the zero-tariff preference, the price of Taiwanese fruit could be reduced to the same level as local fruit.

"Taiwan's agriculture counts on the mainland," said Xu Xinliang, head of the agricultural exchange delegation across the Taiwan Strait and former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. "Taiwan farmers are looking forward to the realization of the three direct links as soon as possible."

In the view of Peng of the CASS, the breakthrough in agricultural trade lies in the efforts of political parties on both sides of the strait. What's more, to benefit the two peoples across the strait, the mainland should continue to take a practical and rational attitude to work out more preferential policies.