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UPDATED: March 25, 2013 NO.13 MARCH 28, 2013
The Military Shapes Up
Recent development trends in China's armed forces demonstrate the new leadership's pragmatism
By Liu Feng'an
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Why more exercises?

The announcement that China would conduct 40 military drills in 2013 was widely reported by both Chinese and foreign media and has sparked discussion among China watchers. New weapons, tactics, training methods, and command-and-control systems are routinely tested in military exercises conducted.

Some analysts believe that such a high-profile announcement was a concrete measure to implement Xi's order on enhancing the military's capacity to fight and win battles to project power to the outside world.

Besides the 40 drills in the General Staff Headquarters' announcement, a number of smaller exercises will also be organized by group armies, naval fleets and various air forces this year.

Meanwhile, Chinese troops are also going to participate in joint military drills with counterparts from Russia, Belarus, Pakistan and Colombia. For example, the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet and Chinese Navy's North China Sea Fleet are planning to hold a joint live fire exercise this June in the Peter the Great Gulf in the Sea of Japan. Peace Mission 2013, another Sino-Russian joint military drill of army and air forces, is also planned.

On March 4, the 14th Chinese naval flotilla heading for the anti-piracy escort mission in the Gulf of Aden and waters off the coast of Somalia attended the Aman-13 multi-national exercise in Pakistan.

All of China's military exercises are to serve the common purposes of increasing fighting capacity, safeguarding national security and maintaining peace and stability in the region and the world.

Budget rationale

The increase in China's defense budget has been widely reported in recent years. The Chinese Government plans to spend 720 billion yuan ($116 billion) on national defense in 2013, a growth of 10.7 percent over the previous year.

For a long time, the proportion of defense spending to GDP in most countries has stood between 2 percent and 5 percent. However, the ratio for China has long been far below 2 percent.

Yin Zhuo, a retired rear admiral, said that the growth of China's defense budget is reasonable considering China's insufficient defense spending in the past. Between the 1980s and 1990s, China's defense budget was quite small. During the 10th Five-Year Plan period (2001-05), the proportion of China's defense spending to GDP was between 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent. Since the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-15), the ratio has edged up between 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent. Over the same periods, the ratio was between 4.5 and 4.8 percent for the United States, between 2.6 and 3.5 percent respectively for Britain and France, and around 3 percent for India.

According to Major General Yu Aishui of the Chinese Air Force, China's national defense and armed forces badly need compensatory increases; otherwise, China's military strength would lag even farther behind other countries and the failure would also do irrevocable damage to the country's overall economic development.

"Despite the growth of China's defense spending in recent years, the annual growth is not large enough. Even faster growth is needed for the future, which is required for and will benefit China's economic development," Yu said.

He believes that in the next five to seven years, China's military spending should be kept at around 4.5 percent of its GDP and the ratio could gradually drop to somewhere between 3 and 3.5 percent. Yu said that before China's defense budget stabilizes, growth is needed to make up for the previous shortage of investment.

Yu suggested that China should quickly raise its ratio of defense spending against GDP to ensure the development of its military is sufficiently financed, and then the ratio can be increased or decreased according to current circumstances.

 

Email us at: yaobin@bjreview.com

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