The annual Central Economic Work Conference, initiated in 1996 by the top leadership of the ruling Communist Party of China and the Central Government toward the end of each year, has always been the focus of attention nationwide, as it is an economic summit that invariably heralds the course of direction of the country's economy for the following year. But this year's conference on December 8-10 in Beijing has garnered even more attention, simply because it was held at a time when the world economic crisis has culminated in various national recessions and largely affected China's own economy.
The just-concluded conference has come up with five major tasks for next year. These include maintaining relatively fast and stable economic growth, boosting domestic demand, carrying out economic restructuring and reforms in key sectors, further opening up the domestic market and improving the livelihoods of the Chinese people as the starting point of bolstering growth.
2008 is a major policy-shifting year for the Chinese economy.
At the beginning of the year, the Central Government implemented prudent fiscal and tightened monetary policies to fight escalating inflation and cool down the overheated economy, which had been growing at 11 percent or more for the past five consecutive years. In the middle of the year, it increased export rebates and loosened credit controls to bolster strong export growth. The result was obvious. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics suggest that inflation fell sharply from 8.5 percent in April to just 2.4 percent in November, and the economy in the first three quarters grew at an average 9.9 percent-ample proof that the country's macroeconomic readjustments were timely and effective.
In light of the worsening global economic crisis and its emerging negative impact on the domestic economy, China has put in place a number of drastic policy changes since October to cope with the challenges and difficulties posing barriers to its economic growth.
A whole range of fiscal, financial, monetary and industrial measures have been drafted, such as giving more subsidies to agricultural production, further easing taxes and interest rates for some industries, creating more employment opportunities and, most strikingly, enacting a 4-trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package for 2009-10. The package will increase investment in infrastructure projects, including transportation, energy and housing, expand bank credit, improve financial services and place greater emphasis on social undertakings. Clearly, such measures are indicative of China's determination to maintain its economic growth through domestic consumption and spending.
This policy of self-reliance seems to be the right and fundamental cure. For decades, China's economy has relied heavily on export and foreign investment, with its dependency on trade standing at 60 percent last year, while consumption-led growth has remained relatively weak. Household consumption now accounts for merely 35 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, compared with 60 percent for Japan and 70 percent for the United States. Not only is this pattern of growth incompatible with China's status as the fourth largest economy in the world, but it may also hurt its economic and strategic interests in the long run and, therefore, will not be sustainable.
Given China's huge population base and the ongoing industrialization and urbanization drives, the policy also looks like a practical approach to keeping the economy on a fast track while minimizing adverse external effects. The key lies exactly with the five tasks set by the Central Economic Work Conference. Hopefully, China's economy will keep growing in 2009 and beyond. |