e-magazine
Quake Shocks Sichuan
Nation demonstrates progress in dealing with severe disaster
Current Issue
· Table of Contents
· Editor's Desk
· Previous Issues
· Subscribe to Mag
Subscribe Now >>
Expert's View
World
Nation
Business
Finance
Market Watch
Legal-Ease
North American Report
Forum
Government Documents
Expat's Eye
Health
Science/Technology
Lifestyle
Books
Movies
Backgrounders
Special
Photo Gallery
Blogs
Reader's Service
Learning with
'Beijing Review'
E-mail us
RSS Feeds
PDF Edition
Web-magazine
Reader's Letters
Make Beijing Review your homepage
Hot Links

cheap eyeglasses
Market Avenue
eBeijing

Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: October 24, 2011 NO. 43 OCTOBER 27, 2011
MARKET WATCH NO. 43, 2011
By HU YUE
Share

SOCKS ON SHOW: A businessman walks past an exhibit at the 10th China International Hosiery Industry Exposition in Zhuji, Zhejiang Province on October 18. More than 600 sock producers across the nation brought their latest products to the show (GUO BIN)

Numbers of the Week

391.5 billion kwh

China's electricity power consumption rose 12.2 percent from a year earlier to reach 391.5 billion kilowatt hours in September, said the National Energy Administration.

1.71trillion yuan

China's state-owned enterprises earned 1.71 trillion yuan ($264.49 billion) in profits in the first three quarters of 2011, growing 19.4 percent year on year, said the Ministry of Finance.

TO THE POINT: The export sector recovers some lost ground, but the near-term outlook is dark as Western economies slump. Investments and consumption are holding up, providing a solid floor under the slowing economy. The property market continues withering, adding to expectations for price decreases. Bank loans decline as policymakers close the lending tap to fight inflation. China shed some holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in August, the first time since April.

Economic Figures

Foreign trade

In the first three quarters of 2011, China's exports totaled $1.39 trillion, growing 22.7 percent year on year, while imports climbed 26.7 percent to reach $1.29 trillion, according to data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC). The trade surplus stood at $107.1 billion.

In September alone, exports went up 17.1 percent to $169.67 billion, while imports amounted to $155.16 billion, up 20.9 percent from a year ago. The trade surplus dropped 12.4 percent from the previous year to $14.51 billion.

"China's foreign trade is experiencing a gradual slowdown as clouds gather over the Western economies," said Lu Peijun, Vice Minister of the GAC. "Meanwhile, faster appreciation of the yuan and capital shortages of smaller exporters have rubbed salt into wounds of the export sector. Worse still, trade protectionism is worsening in many advanced markets."

"We don't expect China's exports to collapse as sharply as they did at the end of 2008, but risks are definitely skewed to a further moderation in external demand in coming months," said Brian Jackson, an emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

But Lu Zhengwei, chief economist with the Industrial Bank Ltd., believed the debt woes in Western countries would have a limited impact on China's economy.

"China has been relying less on exports as a growth engine," he said. "Moreover, much of Chinese exports to those countries are daily necessities, and the demands will be resilient."

Fixed-asset investment

China's fixed-asset investment rose 24.9 percent year on year to 21.23 trillion yuan ($3.33 trillion) in the first nine months of the year, said the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that in the first six months.

Investment in the real estate sector jumped 32 percent to reach 4.42 trillion yuan ($696.1 billion). The rise was 0.9 percentage points lower than that in the first half.

Lu Ting, an economist with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said China's investments will further slow as a result of the government's property tightening measures and slower loan growth. But investments would continue to be supported by government expenditure on housing and public projects, he said.

Retail sales

Retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters amounted to 13.08 trillion yuan ($2.1 trillion), representing an increase of 17 percent in nominal terms from the previous year, said the NBS. In September alone, retail sales went up 17.7 percent year on year.

Consumption growth and solid investments and industrial production point to the economy smoothly navigating toward a soft landing.

"The main risk on the horizon is, not surprisingly, from the broader downside risks to the global economy," said the IMF, in a recent report. "If external vulnerabilities materialize, China's policies will have to respond to support the domestic economy."

A greater portion of fiscal resources should be devoted to boosting consumption and raising household incomes, such as reduction in consumption taxes, it added.

Residents' income

In the first three quarters of 2011, percapita disposable income of urban residents climbed 13.7 percent from a year earlier to 16,301 yuan ($2,557) while per-capita cash income of farmers was 5,875 yuan ($925), up 20.7 percent.

Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the NBS, attributed the income growth to the country's stable economic development and betterthan- expected employment situation.

House prices

In September, 24 out of 70 monitored major cities reported month-on-month increases in prices of new commercial residences, the same with that in August, said the NBS. Meanwhile, 17 cities experienced price declines, compared with 16 in the previous month. Prices stayed unchanged in 29 cities.

As for second-hand homes, prices rose in 24 cities in September, decreasing from 27 in August. Another 25 cities saw their prices drop.

Policymakers have been pushing all thebuttons to prevent house prices from spiraling out of control. A few commercial banks have raised interest rates for mortgage loans of first-home buyers by 5-10 percent.

The business climate index for the real estate sector also fell for the fourth consecutive month to 100.41 in September, indicating weakening confidence of property developers. A reading above 100 shows economic expansion, while a reading below 100 signals contraction.

As developers struggle with financing difficulties and piling inventories, a turning point for house prices is probably in the making, said Zhang Yue, chief analyst with Homelink, the country's largest property agency.

The Ministry of Housing and Rural- Urban Development suggested expanding purchase restrictions to second- and third-tier cities where property prices are escalating. But only a few cities have followed the call.

Local governments are reluctant to impose restrictions as they count on land transfer fees as a source of revenues, said Zhang Dawei, an analyst with Beijing Centaline Property Co. Ltd.

Bank lending

New loans denominated in the yuan totaled 470 billion yuan ($74 billion) in September, a decrease of 78.5 billion yuan ($12.4 billion) from August and 131.1 billion yuan ($20.6 billion) from less than a year ago, said the People's Bank of China, the central bank.

The September figure brought the amount for the January-to-September period to 5.68 trillion yuan ($894.5 billion), a drop of 597.7 billion yuan ($94.1 billion) year on year.

"Although new yuan-denominated loans in September dropped beyond previous expectations, new loans are still sufficient to meet the demands of China's economic growth," said Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank.

Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher with China Construction Bank, said there are still many uncertainties hanging over China's price level in the next period, so the government should not change its prudent monetary policy at this time.

"However, given the difficult situation faced by many smaller companies in China and the deterioration of the global economic environment, the monetary policy cannot be further tightened either," Zhao said.

FDI

China received $86.7 billion of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the first nine months, up 16.6 percent from one year earlier, said the Ministry of Commerce. A total of 20,400 foreign-funded enterprises were approved from January to September, growing 6.24 percent year on year.

In September alone, the FDI inflows amounted to $9.05 billion, up 7.88 percent.

Fiscal revenues

China's fiscal revenue in September rose 17.3 percent from a year ago to 737.7 billion yuan ($115.7 billion). The September figure brought the amount in the first nine months to 8.17 trillion yuan ($1.3 trillion), up 29.5 percent, said the Ministry of Finance.

Offloading U.S. Assets

China reduced its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities by $36.5 billion in August for the first time, after four straight months of net purchases, said the U.S. Treasury Department.

China retained its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, with $1.137 trillion in its portfolio.

China's sell-off comes amid proliferating worries about safety of the U.S. dollar assets due to growing indebtedness of the U.S. Government and the deteriorating health of the U.S. economy.

The country is also seeking to diversify the risks. For example, China in August bought a net 178.9 billion yen of Japanese government debt, marking the first net purchase since October 2010.

Economists, however, believe the U.S. Treasury securities remain a relatively liquid and safe option for China since financial uncertainties are also hanging over Japanese and European financial markets.

Zhao Qingming, a researcher with China Construction Bank, said a more permanent solution is to curb increases in foreign exchange reserves and redress trade imbalance.



 
Top Story
-Too Much Money?
-Special Coverage: Economic Shift Underway
-Quake Shocks Sichuan
-Special Coverage: 7.0-Magnitude Earthquake Hits Sichuan
-A New Crop of Farmers
Most Popular
在线翻译
About BEIJINGREVIEW | About beijingreview.com | Rss Feeds | Contact us | Advertising | Subscribe & Service | Make Beijing Review your homepage
Copyright Beijing Review All right reserved