| OPINION
For years, China has been the country mostly dependent on global trade and contributed the most to the world's real GDP growth. For this reason, many market participants have been frustrated by the November trade statistics from the General Administration of Customs.
In November, China's total import and export value amounted to $339.13 billion, a mere 1.5-percent year-on-year increase. Exports rose by 2.9 percent year on year to $179.38 billion, while imports leveled off at $159.75 billion compared to the same period last year. Since total import and export value expanded by 7.3 percent in October and exports even witnessed a growth rate as high as 11.6 percent, the market's disappointment was aggravated.
Such disappointment is totally unnecessary, for visible imports and exports are real economic activities, whose trend can only be understood by examining data over a period of six months. From January to November this year, China's total import and export value reached $3.5 trillion, up 5.8 percent year on year, much more inspiring than that in November.
Moreover, the unsatisfactory year-on-year growth rate in November is largely caused by the high base number. Compared to the double-digit growth recorded in November last year, it comes as no surprise to see a falling year-on-year growth rate in November this year.
China's foreign trade has experienced a period of explosive expansion. From 2000 to 2011, its import and export growth rates skyrocketed by over 30 percent for four years and by 20-30 percent for five years; its exports shot up by over 30 percent for three years.
In contrast, the trade figures in November, frustrating indeed, indicate the growth of import and export value has no chance of achieving the government-set goal of 10 percent.
Nevertheless, China still performed much better than many other countries. But as China has already made up a large part of global production and trade and the global economy is undergoing a slowdown or even a recession, it's almost impossible for China to maintain robust growth in foreign trade.
Besides, faster export growth implies a strong competitiveness in China's exporting industry. Mechanical and electrical exports grew faster than total exports every month of this year. For the first 11 months this year, mechanical and electrical exports totaled $1.06 trillion, up 8.2 percent, 0.9 percentage points higher than total exports.
Trade statistics in the first 11 months indicate net exports have made a greater contribution to China's economic growth. From January to November, of the total foreign trade value, exports and imports registered $1.85 billion and $1.65 billion, up 7.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. The trade surplus in the first 11 months was $199.54 billion, $154.9 billion more than that of last year. The contribution of net exports to the GDP growth will return to a positive number this year.
With a gloomy international economic environment, prospects for growth over the next year also don't seem optimistic. The World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October predicted that the real GDP growth rate of the world will be 3.3 and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The IMF reduced its expectation for the growth of advanced economies from its previous estimation of 2 percent to 1.5 percent, and that of emerging and developing economies from 6 percent to 5.6 percent.
Under such circumstances, China should maintain its current share of foreign trade rather than pursuing double-digit growth.
This is an edited excerpt of an article by Mei Xinyu, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, published in the National Business Daily
THE MARKETS
Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was approved as the first inland opening-up pilot economic zone in September. A comprehensive tax-free zone was set up in Yinchuan, capital of the region.
With rich coal reserves and abundant mineral resources, the regional government plans to build Ningxia into a national energy and chemical base, a specialized agricultural production and processing base and a Eurasian logistics transit base.
Halal food and other Muslim products will also be promoted as the region is home to one fifth of the Hui ethnic people in the country.
Moreover, the annual China-Arab States Economic and Trade Forum will boost trade and investment with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Arab states and Muslim countries.
Siemens China achieved its second best ever market performance in China in the fiscal year 2012 (October 1, 2011-September 30, 2012) in defiance of the challenges brought by the global economic slowdown.
In fiscal year 2012, new orders of Siemens in China reached 6.04 billion euros ($7.89 billion) and revenue was 6.35 billion euros ($8.3 billion), on almost the same level as the record-breaking fiscal year 2011, and becoming the second best year in the company's 140-year-long history in China. The country makes up 8 percent of Siemens global total revenue and remains its second largest overseas market.
Siemens continues to complete its local value chain, covering product management, R&D, sourcing, manufacturing, sales and service.
"The Chinese economy will continue the growth momentum that has emerged over the past few months," said Mei-Wei Cheng, CEO of Siemens North East Asia and President and CEO of Siemens Ltd., China. "We will seize this opportunity to sharpen our core competitive edge in China."
NUMBERS
20.16 trillion yuan
The amount of China's private fixed assets investment from January to November, up 25 percent year on year.
9.04 trillion yuan
The amount of private fixed assets investment in the service sector from January to November, up 22.3 percent year on year.
4.06 trillion yuan
The amount of private fixed assets investment in west China from January to November, up 28.9 percent year on year.
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