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Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: June 17, 2013 NO. 25 JUNE 20, 2013
Shaping the Future
Fortune Global Forum explores the major trends impacting China's economy
By Yu Shujun
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KEYNOTE SPEECH: China's Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli delivers an address at the Gala Dinner for the Opening of the 2013 Fortune Global Forum on June 6 (PANG XINGLEI)

Liu Yonghao, Chairman of New Hope Group, one of China's largest agribusinesses based in southwest China's Sichuan Province, didn't need to fly to Beijing, Shanghai, or New York City to see a top foreign business partner as he might have done. On June 6 and 7, he met with eight of their partners' high-level executives from the world's largest companies at the 2013 Fortune Global Forum right on his doorstep in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan.

"They came here not only to attend a conference but also to invest and develop in Chengdu," said Liu, during a panel discussion of the forum.

The 2013 Fortune Global Forum was held in Chengdu from June 6 to 8, the fourth time that China has held the event, which attracted more than 600 foreign and domestic business and government leaders as well as economists to discuss topics on the theme of China's New Future.

At the sidelines of the three-day event, 74 deals, valued at more than 112 billion yuan ($18.26 billion), were signed between the Chengdu local government and Fortune 500 companies or other renowned multinationals, adding to the investments already made by 238 Fortune 500 companies in the city. Most of the deals are in the hi-tech manufacturing or services industries.

The Fortune Global Forum's choice of convention site and the Fortune 500 companies' increasing presence in Chengdu represents not only the rise of west China, but also the ongoing attraction of the Chinese economy.

What are the underlying forces behind China's incessant momentum amid a lackluster world economy? That was a major topic for discussion at the Chengdu forum.

Having discussed the opportunities brought by the transformation of China's development model, urbanization as well as the West Development Strategy, most panelists were optimistic about the prospects of China's economy, yet none of them underestimated the challenge of sustainability that lies ahead.

Driving forces

In the past, the Chinese economy relied too much on exports and government-led investment. "The growth model is running out of gas. They're going to need to reinvigorate reform," said Henry Paulson, former U.S. Treasury Secretary at the forum. "What hits me right smack between the eyes is the same thing the Chinese Government knows. They've diagnosed the problem and come up with prescriptions."

FOCUSING ON CHINA: Andy Serwer, Managing Editor of Fortune, speaks at the opening plenary of the Fortune Global Forum (CFP)

China's new future is defined by pro-consumption growth built upon a transition away from manufacturing and more toward urbanization and a more complete social safety net, said Andy Serwer, Managing Editor of Fortune at the opening plenary of the forum.

China's service industry is less than 50 percent of the country's GDP, compared to about 80 percent in the United States. "The service economy of course creates jobs, producing 30 percent more jobs per U.S. dollar in GDP than manufacturing," said Serwer, adding that other benefits of the service economy include less reliance on resources and more sustainable growth.

Urbanization will also have a profound impact on China's economy and the Chinese standard of living because it will lead to increased consumption and job creation—a proven formula to lift the nation's per-capita income, he said.

Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director of McKinsey & Co., said he's bullish on China's future, based on what he called China's "underlying force of growth"—urbanization. McKinsey estimated that China's urban population will hit 1 billion by 2030.

If urbanization is used to spur the population to spend, then China's high-speed growth can be prolonged for decades, said Yang Yuanqing, Chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, a Chinese PC giant.

The Chinese Government's efforts in completing its social safety net will also help unleash the spending power of the population, said Serwer. A social safety net will also encourage and enable entrepreneurs to innovate and create jobs.

A shift to the service economy, urbanization, and improving social security will certainly benefit China's western region. Moreover, the west has its own advantages—low-cost labor force, abundant land resources and a vast market, according to Ge Honglin, Mayor of Chengdu. Statistics show that the GDP growth of China's western region was 12.5 percent in 2012, higher than the national average of 7.8 percent.

Meanwhile, investment in infrastructure is still needed for the less developed west to realize its full economic potential. For example, the United States has 5,000 airports for its 320 million people. But China, with a population of 1.3 billion, only has 400 airports, said Liew Mun Leong, Founding President of the Singapore-based CapitaLand Group and Chairman of Changi Airport. China especially needs more airports in western cities. If the cities are not connected to the outside, they will not be developed, said Liew.

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