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Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: June 23, 2014 NO. 26 JUNE 26, 2014
The 'New Normal'
The restructuring of the economy requires not just new policies, but entirely new ways of perceiving growth
By Lan Xinzhen
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Finally, Wang said macro-control and innovative thinking will play a larger role. The government will adhere to a mix of proactive and prudent policies with a stress on flexibility and prevision. It will also pay equal attention to stabilizing growth, adjusting the economic structure and minimizing potential risks.

The "new normal," Wang said, is not an indication of an economic depression, but a "balancing out" by which the Chinese will attain sustainable growth in the long term. As China's economic reform deepens, he said that people should adjust their expectations and adapt to the "new normal," instead of fixating on high-speed growth. In short, it's time for new thinking.

Don't panic

Zhang Monan, an associate research fellow of the CCIEE, held that the international community should not be unduly alarmed by the apparent downward trend in China's macroeconomy.

It's obvious to anyone that China's economy is indeed slowing down, compared to the double-digit growth registered in the early years of its reform and opening up. However, Zhang pointed out that China's figures are not so alarming. Take India as an example. Its GDP growth stood at 10.1 percent in 2010, but dramatically dropped to 4.9 percent in 2013. In addition, some export-oriented economies such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have also experienced slowdown.

However, the "new normal" hasn't arisen merely from superficially comparing China with other economies. Instead, it answers the demands of the much-needed economic structural reform. In any case, the current 7-percent-or-so growth rate is in line with China's current economic status—that of a middle-income country.

The slowdown to some extent can be construed as the growing pains associated with economic restructuring and is in compliance with the economic "laws of physics."

Zhang said China has adjusted its expectations for growth, prepared to enhance its load-bearing capacity for economic slowdown, and devoted more energy and resources to reinforcing reforms and economic restructuring, so that the efficiency of the economy can be greatly improved.

Future policies

Wang said that economists should not confine their macroeconomic analysis to the three traditional drivers—consumption, investment and export, but seek brand new sources of momentum for long-term development.

Wang suggested more investment be made in the education sector to nurture talent in innovation. After all, promoting employment and raising productivity represent the roots of economic growth.

Aside from that, Wang said that the mixed ownership model should be further expanded, and private enterprises should be encouraged to enter sectors once monopolized by state-owned enterprises. In this way, investment return and the efficiency of resource allocation should also be significantly improved.

Furthermore, more investment is required in science and technology, and more efforts should be made in promoting the application of scientific and technological results, making innovation the new engine for economic growth.

Wang said that government policies in the future should reaffirm the dominant role of enterprises in innovation, strictly safeguard intellectual property rights and take the initiative in incorporating into the global innovation network.

Zhang believed that future economic policies and reform should shift focus from demand management to supply management, encompassing the management and adjustment of labor force, salaries, prices and output growth. In other words, supply management means increasing the effective supply in the macroeconomy and alleviating the downward pressures and imbalances through technological innovation, the accumulation of human capital and the enhancement of total factor productivity.

In the meantime, an array of market-oriented reforms should be carried out, such as interest rate liberalization, the elimination of price fixing, and adjustment of income distribution.

"Only in this way can the economy maintain sustainable growth. It represents new thinking with the 'new normal' lying at its foundation," said Zhang.

Email us at:  lanxinzhen@bjreview.com

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