e-magazine
Investing in Resilient Growth
China adds new vitality to global governance during Brisbane G20 Summit
Current Issue
· Table of Contents
· Editor's Desk
· Previous Issues
· Subscribe to Mag
Subscribe Now >>
Expert's View
World
Nation
Business
Finance
Market Watch
Legal-Ease
North American Report
Forum
Government Documents
Expat's Eye
Health
Sci-Tech
Lifestyle
Books
Movies
Backgrounders
Special
Photo Gallery
Blogs
Reader's Service
Learning with
'Beijing Review'
E-mail us
RSS Feeds
PDF Edition
Web-magazine
Reader's Letters
Make Beijing Review your homepage
Business
Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: November 28, 2014 NO. 49 DECEMBER 4, 2014
Turning the Tap Back On
China's central bank cuts interest rates to lift a sagging economy, but is it enough?
By Zhou Xiaoyan
Share

The property sector, which contributes to more than 15 percent of China's economy and impacts more than 40 industries from cement to home appliances, suffered a notable downturn earlier this year. Sluggish sales data and falling prices, combined with large inventory, created a weak sentiment in the market, all weighing on the industry's outlook and consumers' confidence.

In the first 10 months of the year, sales of commercial properties decreased 7.8 percent, while inventories increased 28.4 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Sixty-seven of 70 cities monitored by the NBS reported falling housing prices from the year-ago period in October. Property developers are eagerly clearing their inventories through discounts.

Immediately after the interest rate cut, Chinese stocks related to real estate rallied, and buyers' enthusiasm was re-ignited in many cities, especially first-tier ones, as buyers took note of the cheaper home loans.

"The biggest near-term beneficiary group will be mortgage borrowers, as mortgage rates will be reduced alongside the benchmark lending rate, helping to support demand," Wang Tao said.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property Agency Ltd., said the housing market, especially in first-tier cities, stood to benefit the most from the rate cut.

"The lending rate cut translates into remarkable discounts for first-time home buyers and will have a strong psychological impact on them," he said.

Zhang explained that as a result of the benchmark mortgage rate cut, which stands at 6.15 percent, people with a 20-year mortgage loan of 1 million yuan ($162,866) will save about 234 yuan ($38) each month.

Yi Huaqiang, an analyst with Beijing-based Huarong Securities Co. Ltd., said the real estate sector is one of the industries that is very sensitive to monetary policies.

"Historically, every interest rate cut is a strong stimulus to the real estate segment," Yi said.

The interest rate cut requires both property developers and homebuyers to pay less interest, helping both the construction and purchase of properties, according to Yi.

More needed

Some experts predict that the central bank is likely to cut interest rates again in 2015 and ease lending restrictions in the future amid concerns that a slowing economy could spark a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC, said the interest rate cut signals a change of direction in China's monetary policy from targeted easing to overall easing.

"It will pave the way for future credit easing. In 2015, the central bank will cut rates twice and reduce RRR once," Qu predicted in his Sina Weibo account, China's Twitter-like micro-blogging website.

RRR is the percentage of deposits that commercial banks have to keep in reserve. An increase in RRR means locking away a certain amount of money that banks could otherwise lend. A cut in RRR means banks have a larger amount of capital available to fund loans. China cut the RRR for some banks in June, but a banking-wide reduction in the ratio hasn't been seen since May 2012.

A report from Minsheng Securities Co. Ltd. said the recent interest rate cut is not the end but rather the start of a new round of loosening.

"Right now, the actual loan rate is at a historical high, and one rate cut can hardly lead to a fundamental improvement of the economy. In 2015, China will face more downward pressure in economic growth and in inflation; therefore, it's necessary to reduce the loan rate," read the report. "The reduction of RRR is very much likely to happen in the near future."

Guo Lei, a senior analyst with Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. Ltd., said China's economic growth will hit a bump in 2015; therefore, he forecasts the central bank will cut interest rates again in the first half of 2015.

Guo said that, in the long run, growth momentum comes from China's increasing efforts to bolster reforms.

"In 2015, reforms on China's state-owned enterprises will be expedited to unleash lots of dividends," Guo said.

"Another driver for China's future growth would be the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road," Guo said. "It will be a major boon for the export of China's infrastructure construction capacity, and other areas, such as trade and investment, will directly benefit from the two initiatives."

   Previous   1   2  



 
Top Story
-Opening-Up Mics
-Universal Humor
-Oil Prices on the Decline
-A Shared Path
-Exploits Into the Unknown
Most Popular
在线翻译
About BEIJINGREVIEW | About beijingreview.com | Rss Feeds | Contact us | Advertising | Subscribe & Service | Make Beijing Review your homepage
Copyright Beijing Review All right reserved