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Print Edition> Business
UPDATED: December 19, 2014 NO. 52 DECEMBER 25, 2014
Investing in Citizens
The people will become a new impetus for China's economic growth to adapt to the 'new normal'
By Wang Jun
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According to Hu, in the adjustment to the industrial structure, the country must change the focus from labor-intensive low-end manufacturing industries to high-end industries mainly driven by high technologies, and from the traditional model based on production to a modern one that stresses both production and services.

"This means that the economic growth must rely on human capital instead of labor," Hu said. "Only when China's economic growth completes the transformation from being labor-driven to human capital-driven can the country regain the internal driving force for the economic growth and realize economic take-off again."

Investments wanted

Currently, in China, the number of laborers is decreasing while human capital keeps growing, in contrast to previous trends, in which both increased rapidly. Experts think China should emphasize human capital investment in the future to accelerate upgrading of industrial structure.

"Why is the proportion of R&D investment against the total GDP rising sharply? It is not input by the government, but the companies themselves, because they have to improve their productivity, and the importance of human capital is hence recognized. From the brisk training market you can see such importance," said Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, who believes the most important thing for China to do to improve productivity is to make full use of human capital, which he sees as the core of invention.

According to the China Human Capital Report 2014 compiled by the China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research (CHLR) under the Central University of Finance and Economics, the ratio of GDP against the total volume of human capital keeps rising in China, indicating the average productivity of human capital is rising. Li Haizheng, Director of CHLR, said the growth of human capital in China during recent years is not brought on by the increasing population, but promoted by education and other factors.

China's total volume of human capital had reached 812.1 trillion yuan ($132.7 trillion) in 2010, among the top of the world, but its per-capita human capital is still low, ranking 43rd among all the 122 economies on the list.

Since China's per-capita human capital is still low, it is particularly important for the government to invest more in human capital, especially in two aspects: educating more people to raise the labor force participation rate, and improving the labor market for better allocation of labor resources.

In the education sector, experts suggest extending compulsory education and continuing college enrollment expansion. Chen Yuyu, Director of the Institute of Economic Policy Research of Peking University, said China will grow to become a country that supplies well-educated and skillful laborers from one with just abundant supplies of poorly educated and less skillful laborers. Chen thinks to adapt to such a change, China must fundamentally reform its labor market.

"In China, the rate of college graduates aged 25-34 among the total population is lower than those of other countries, which requires the government to continue expanding investment in human capital, including extending basic education," Chen said. "And the college enrollment expansion should not be slowed down just because of temporary difficulties and nearsightedness."

Cai thinks that the essence of current employment policy must be changed. Under the present conditions, the most pressing problem is no longer the creation of more job opportunities but that skills of laborers cannot adapt to the changes of industrial structures.

According to Cai, since China's working-age population has peaked and is now decreasing, the government has to raise the labor force participation rate—a ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. Growing a larger, more educated population requires further expansion of college enrollment, because higher education can improve the quality of laborers and stimulate high school education.

In the labor market, Cao suggests the government to improve the efficiency of labor resources allocation through various supporting policies. Cao said that urbanization is in essence the urbanization of people and that capital is no longer reflected in monetary capital but rather in human capital.

"Urbanization does not mean merely building houses or subways, while the improvement of human capital is the core of urbanization. To improve human capital, a country needs a complete set of systems, and soft infrastructure such as education, healthcare and culture will become more important," said Cao.

In other words, boosting China's economic value requires a simple change in investment—an investment in its citizens and well-being, a win-win situation.

"Under new conditions, we must guide the change of investment into sectors conducive to accumulate human capital," said Li Yang, Vice President of the CASS. "Investment meeting such a requirement should obviously be made in education, healthcare, social security and other sectors of social infrastructure."

Email us at: wangjun@bjreview.com

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