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Economists Comment on China
Special> 2010 in Retrospect> Economists Comment on China
UPDATED: January 4, 2011 Web Exclusive
Chen Jiagui:
China's GDP growth will increase by 9.9 percent in 2010
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Chen Jiagui, member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, and Director of the Economic Division of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 

On December 7, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2011 Blue Book on China's Economy, predicting that China's GDP would grow by 9.9 percent in 2010.

"In 2010, the global economy mostly has the sigh of recovery from the financial crisis," said Chen Jiagui, member of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, and Director of the Economic Division of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "With the help of a proactive fiscal and a moderately loose monetary policy, the Chinese economy has stabilized and is now back to its previous state of comparatively fast development," said Chen. However, inflationary stress has also increased in this time. China's consumer price index (CPI) grew quickly in the second half of 2010, by 4.4 percent as of October.

Chen also pointed out that macroeconomic control has become one of the main factors to impact China's economy. The Central Government has introduced a series of policies to regulate China's real estate market and control the rise of the price. Since real estate investment accounts for nearly 20 percent of fixed asset investments in urban areas, Chen believed that the regulation and control of China's real estate industry will produce downward pressure on the Chinese economy. In addition, debt financing for local governments has also expanded, which has increased the debt repayment risk for these local governments. With several measures in place to help clean up local financing platforms, the growth of fixed asset investments will gradually slow down. In general, China's economic growth mode driven by inner momentum has formed while for a short period of time the economy will drive by investment and consumption.



 
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