Neighbors' attitudes

COMMON TOUCH: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad waves to supporters after addressing parliament in Damascus on March 30 (XINHUA/AFP)

Currently, Syria's allies, neighbors and enemies all maintain a cautious attitude toward the situation.

Syria occupies an important geopolitical position in the region. Any ripple of change in Syria might trigger a wave of change in the rest of the region. Unlike Libya, Syria is not alone on the world stage—it is an ally of Russia. When the United States and European countries tried to pass a statement to condemn Syria through a UN Security Council discussion, their motion was opposed by Russia.

Syria's neighbors don't want to see a messy situation in Syria, because it would create unpredictable results in the region. Syria also has a Kurdish issue. Once Syria's political stability deteriorates, Syrian Kurds might establish an autonomous Kurdish region like the one in northern Iraq, which may spark a chain reaction in Kurdish communities in Turkey and Iran, much to the chagrin of the Turkish Government. Turkey hopes the Bashar al-Assad regime will remain in power. Turkey, which borders Syria, also worries that it might be faced with a surge of Syrian refugees. Other Arab countries in the Gulf region do not wish to see a power shift in Syria for similar reasons.

Although Israel is an enemy of Syria, the two nations have been at peace with each other for a long time. Israel prefers the stability ensured by the continued presence of Bashar al-Assad to the looming threat of Islamic extremists seizing power in yet another neighboring country.

Civil war unlikely

The situation in Syria will depend on both Bashar al-Assad's ability to cope with current challenges and the strength of the Syrian opposition.

Unlike Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Bashar al-Assad is capable of dealing with the current challenges. He enjoys the support of most Syrian people and the Syrian Government still keeps the military under control. The al-Assad family, the military, the ruling Ba'ath Party and the Alawis still have strong influence in the country. Bashar al-Assad has called on civilians to report "terrorists" participating in violent protests around them. These "terrorists" will find no safe refuge in the country.

While suppressing demonstrators, the Syrian Government has promised to devise plans for comprehensive reforms. In the meantime, it has begun to conduct negotiations with the opposition. Therefore, Bashar al-Assad is able to meet challenges from the opposition at least for a while, especially with support from the military.

Since the Syrian Government has long cracked down on Islamic radicals, there are almost no political parities or organizations in Syria formidable enough to oust the government. So chances for a civil war in the country are quite slim.

The author is a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences