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UPDATED: November 25, 2011
Forecast for Climate Deal in Durban Is Foggy: UNEP Spokesperson
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Chances for a binding climate deal remain foggy, said a spokesperson from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), as delegates hope to bring a breath of fresh air into the latest round of UN conference on climate change starting November 28 in Durban, South Africa.

"The world appears not to be there yet or to have found a pathway to bringing those 190 nations together in a new agreement, but it doesn't mean that Durban cannot move forward on certain fronts," Nick Nuttall, head of media at UNEP, told Xinhua in a recent telephone interview.

With negotiators set to hammer out the details at the 17th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Durban from Nov. 28 to Dec. 9 expectations to seal an accord on the global battle against climate change is widely perceived as low.

The world's foremost authority on energy economics, the International Energy Agency, has warned that the globe is headed for irreversible climate change in five years if current trends persist.

According to the UN, global carbon dioxide emissions rose to a record high in 2010.

But fueling steam in climate talks is the urgency of the future after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol -- the only global pact legally binding 37 rich countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions, which is set to expire in 2012.

"I think it's clear from all the comments, discussions and statements from the governments of South Africa and many other governments that we will not see in Durban a new legally binding agreement on greenhouse gas emissions," Nuttall said.

Developed and developing countries have been divided on whether to carry forward the protocol's commitments beyond 2012 or set up a new framework altogether. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has expressed his hope that the nations will find a compromise on the Kyoto Protocol so as to produce a more comprehensive climate agreement.

Like its predecessors, last year's summit in Cancun, Mexico, attempted but failed to bring to a global and legally binding agreement on this thorny issue.

Although a consensus is deemed unlikely, Nuttall said that there are possibilities that Durban can be a stepping stone in other areas, particularly if the countries can bridge the gap in financial aid.

Thanks to Cancun summit's creation of the Green Climate Fund last year, developed countries pledged to channel $100 billion per year by 2020 to assist developing countries in fighting against climate change.

The fund, also designated to help vulnerable countries adapt to the upsurge of droughts, storms and floods, was drawn up at the 2009 negotiating table in Copenhagen, capital of Denmark.

But the question on how to raise and allocate the money for the fund remains hazy with the UN secretary-general warning that the fund risks being an "empty shell."

"At Durban, there is an option to move this project on in terms of how this fund managed and operated ... time will tell whether in fact it will actually emerge in Durban with money in it," Nuttall said.

The design of the fund is a source of contention for developed and developing countries. While developing nations have argued for direct access to national climate change trust funds, developed countries have pushed for a third-party channel route, such as through the World Bank.

"Certainly developing countries will be looking to developed countries to assist now in terms for financial support for adaptation and also green energies," Nuttall said.

An agreement on the blueprint of the fund could be a possible face-saving measure, but months of tense talks within the international committee, which is tasked with designing the fund, have brewed frustration between the nations.

Before this year's summit, representatives of the 19 countries most vulnerable to climate change met in a ministerial forum in Bangladesh on November 14 to sign a declaration advocating for a second term of the Kyoto Protocol without a break between the first and second phases. The declaration also included support for a legally binding agreement on greenhouse gas emissions cuts.

"I think that the primary goal (for Durban) is for nations to raise their level of ambition in terms of dealing with climate change and while developing countries have no legal responsibility to act in terms of targets and timetables, they have already stepped forward, like they did in Copenhagen and Cancun, to say that 'we want to be part of the solution,'" Nuttall said.

But despite pledges from the international community to fight climate change, a binding agreement still seems doubtful for the Durban summit.

(Xinhua News Agency November 24, 2011)



 
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