Pivoting toward Asia
If transnational threats rising in the Middle East can be contained, said Brookings Indyk, Obama wants to turn away from the region and focus on Asia.
"I just don't see those things as high on his agenda versus building a relationship with China, promoting India's rise in Asia and seeking the opportunities that lie in that region of the world," he said.
Obama has indicated that he will pursue a policy of partnership with China, but he has a difficult task ahead convincing the American electorate that China's economic rise does not mean a U.S. decline. Anti-China rhetoric heated up during the campaign, with Republican challenger Mitt Romney threatening to label China a currency manipulator and Obama filing trade disputes against Chinese imports and blocking investment into U.S. wind farms by a Chinese-owned company. Now that the campaign has ended, Obama may soften his rhetoric but a significant number of Americans believe U.S. debt owned by China represents a serious national security risk.
This year, top officials in the Obama administration spent much of their face-time with Asian countries that could be a friction point in Chinese territorial disputes. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta toured Singapore, Vietnam and India; Obama hosted Philippines President Benigno Aquino; and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton welcomed counterparts from Cambodia, Thailand, India and South Korea, according to Reuters. U.S. involvement may fire up regional tensions.
"What you are seeing is key players in the region playing their cards differently," Ross Babbage, a defense analyst and founder of Australia's Kokoda Foundation, told Reuters.
On trade, Obama has been promoting the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership with 11 countries in Southeast Asia, South America and the Pacific. A final deal could come in 2013, with the U.S. opening up protected sectors like dairy, sugar and textiles. The administration is expected to continue filing complaints against China with the World Trade Organization (WTO), pressured by U.S. companies to boost their competitiveness against Chinese imports. The Obama administration has filed eight WTO cases against China since 2009.
Overall, though, Obama's reelection is hoped to ease tensions with China. He is seen as taking a softer stance than challenger Mitt Romney, who advocated an aggressive policy against China, especially on currency.
Analysts at Nomura told CNN that Romney's defeat should reduce the risk of China pushing its currency into depreciation in retaliation for aggressive trade tactics.
"Although Obama and the U.S. Treasury will continue to press China for greater [currency] liberalization and appreciation, the pressure is likely to be more diplomatic," the analysts said.
The administration has also crafted a bilateral investment treaty that it is negotiating with China, suggesting greater levels of liberalization, particularly in the service sector, says Foreign Policy's Daniel Drezner.
"A United States that is both willing and able to sign more economic agreements is a good thing for the country," said Drezner.
Background:
Top 5 Foreign Policy Issues Facing Obama
1. Escalating civil war in Syria
Though reluctant to become involved in another Mideast conflict, tensions in Syria may spread to Turkey and destabilize the fragile peace in the region.
2. Iran's nuclear weaponization and Israeli response
Despite crippling sanctions, Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons capability, and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear Israel will opt for a military solution if it believes sanctions are failing.
3. Stabilization and peaceful transition of Afghanistan
Obama has pledged to end the war in Afghanistan in 2014, but the country could quickly devolve into civil war along ethnic lines.
4. The rise of cyber terrorism and attacks
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has warned about the threat of a massive cyber attack, a new-age "Pearl Harbor" that could be "just as destructive as the terrorist attack of 9/11".
5. Souring relations with Pakistan and the revival of Al Qaeda
The U.S. and Pakistan have been uneasy allies, even before Osama bin Laden was hunted down and killed within Pakistani borders.
The author is a freelance writer living in New York City |