Pyongyang's resolve to denuclearize

Reviewing the development of the issue, we find it unfair to put the blame for the delay solely on North Korea. However, it is a stark fact that it failed to honor its promise, a failure that may give rise to speculation about the future. A widespread concern in the international community is how long it will take to arrive at a final settlement marked by North Korea's complete withdrawal of the funds from the BDA. If it takes too long, North Korea's motive may cast a dark shadow over the progress of the six-party talks.

North Korea has been so serious about its funds in the BDA partly because of its distrust of the United States and fears over uncertainties. It may have deeper concerns as well. The United States froze North Korea's funds mainly based on allegations of dollar forgery and money laundering, which are serious criminal offenses. According to the law, the funds should never be made accessible. Although it unblocked the funds, the United States has not rescinded the charges against North Korea. How can the Government of Macao allow North Korea to withdraw the money lawfully? Against this backdrop, North Korea suspected that the funds could not be returned easily. That's why it wanted to make sure that it could get back the money before it sets out to implement the Joint Document. If the Macao Government, which has repeatedly vowed to address the issue according to the law, allows North Korea to withdraw the money, the move will in effect negate the United States' accusations, paving the way for North Korea to break U.S. financial sanctions.

North Korea's delay in carrying out the Joint Document will adversely affect the restoration of mutual trust between North Korea and the United States. In spite of this, it is believed that North Korea will not abandon its commitment if the funds issue is completely resolved.

First of all, North Korea's denuclearization has become an irresistible trend with the adoption of the Joint Statement in September 2005 and the Joint Document in February this year. The two documents are "rails" laid by the six parties involved. The train is set to travel along the rails though its speed may vary. North Korea has no reason and is unable to reverse the trend unless the United States violates the documents.

Second, it is unreasonable to reject North Korea's promise to give up nuclear programs as false. When it pledged in the Joint Statement that it would abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs, North Korea declared an end to its nuclear weapons politically. The pledge was not a tactical maneuver. This was evident from the statement made by North Korea when it conducted a nuclear test last year. In the statement, the late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung's instructions were cited to demonstrate North Korea's desire to achieve denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, showing the world that it will honor its commitment as long as Washington changes its policy toward Pyongyang. North Korea has no reason to go back on its promise at a time when the United States is changing its hostile policy.

Third, the most pressing problem for North Korea is to improve the environment for its survival and development. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has set the goal of building North Korea into a strong and prosperous country. However, because of hostility between North Korea and the United States, the former not only has to confront security problems but also is mired in economic malaise threatening the nation's survival. If its denuclearization can lead to a fundamental improvement in its relations with the United States, thus resolving its security concerns and gaining opportunities for economic development, North Korea will definitely give serious thought to it.

Hopes are high in the international community that the North Korean Government will make a dramatic shift in its domestic policy when the nuclear issue is resolved. The shift does not necessarily mean that North Korea will duplicate China's reform and opening-up policy, but at least it is expected to put the focus on economic development instead of a military buildup.

North Korea is also expected to embrace greater openness, enabling the outside world to get a real picture of the country and the North Koreans to learn more about the changing world. North Korea has taken some steps to carry out economic reforms and attract foreign investment. Despite the tentative efforts, the country has yet to initiate a resolute "reform and opening-up program."

This standoff is attributed partly to the strong conservative forces in the country and partly to the hostile U.S. policy, which has hindered the development of reformist thought in North Korea and hardened its traditional ideology.

In future six-party talks, major obstacles will not be created by North Korea but by the United States. The United States has long legalized its hostile policy toward North Korea. Any change will be held back by legal procedures, as evidenced by the current funds issue. What justifications can the U.S. Government use to remove the designation of North Korea as a "state sponsor of terrorism" and terminate the application of the Trading With the Enemy Act to North Korea? This question has a crucial bearing on the implementation of the Joint Document and is not easily answered. n